Looks like a fun voting game. This is my take on further market movement
What can make the s$p jump past 3000?
Quarantined lifted across the entire country, everyone back to work, business as usual first week of May. Boom s$p 3000!!!!
Covid -19 virus cases dropping and curve falling hard will easily be a reason for s$p 3000.
Fed already has interest rates at 0 so they cant drop them any further, but negative, which they will go if markets collapse.
Fed introduces more stimulus which we know they will. S$p 3000
Now reason for new lows.....
If they decide to keep the lock down on throughout May the markets take a dive to fresh lows, that's when they will of course add the 4th and 7th and 12th multi trillion dollar stimulus package and send out more stimulus money to all to have as a gift to spend and hopefully bring GDP back to negative 5.9%, yes negative because we are headed to a very negative gdp, somewhere in the double digits.
If virus cases drop into mid april and then suddenly move higher here in the US or abroad into end of april, Stocks collapse and quarantine lock down stays into June. Fed adds more stimulus and probably takes rates Negative at next emergency fed meeting.
So many scenarios at this moment and extremely hard to navigate...literally anything can move these markets to extremes at this point. I do think upside is extremely limited due to a collapse in earnings moving out 6-12 months and the collapse also limited to plenty of fed intervention but with fear more powerful than greed new lows is definitely possible well before new highs!!!
As for the vote I'm Neutral
