Vote here if you think this is the beginning of a bear market of 2018?
- Thread starter vincentnyc
- Start date
I would never predict this ridiculous market. It's so obvious the market was front loaded by fed intervention/QE/ artificial low rates. How else could the market triple in value with a slow plodding economy that grew under 2% for years? This "front load" kept the market going up and up when it should't have. Now, the economy is finally doing better and the market wants to soar even more? Is that how it works now...some growth or no growth and the market keeps hitting highs? Then when things really do get better...turn into a bubble. How about negative growth and all time highs...is that the future at some point?
Low rate borrowing and then buying back shares is not true earnings. Did any of you know that buybacks were illegal until 1982...the gov. thought it was a form of manipulation! My family has benefited from all this manipulation, but being objective about the truth is wise.
Low rate borrowing and then buying back shares is not true earnings. Did any of you know that buybacks were illegal until 1982...the gov. thought it was a form of manipulation! My family has benefited from all this manipulation, but being objective about the truth is wise.
I would never predict this ridiculous market. It's so obvious the market was front loaded by fed intervention/QE/ artificial low rates. How else could the market triple in value with a slow plodding economy that grew under 2% for years? This "front load" kept the market going up and up when it should't have. Now, the economy is finally doing better and the market wants to soar even more? Is that how it works now...some growth or no growth and the market keeps hitting highs? Then when things really do get better...turn into a bubble. How about negative growth and all time highs...is that the future at some point?
Low rate borrowing and then buying back shares is not true earnings. Did any of you know that buybacks were illegal until 1982...the gov. thought it was a form of manipulation! My family has benefited from all this manipulation, but being objective about the truth is wise.
i don't do prediction and i could careless about the why. the why will never help you make the money. i'm a chart guy. i let the chart tell me what to do next. and we are in a deep doo doo. comprende?
I get that...I'm a chart guy, but I can't help but see whats going on around us too. If anything, you can warn family members and give them an explanation on WHY they should be prepared. Telling them my chart says so isn't going to cut it. So, your charts say shit is going down...I take it you're heavily short?
i don't do shorting of stock. but i buy 3x bear/bull etf when i see opportunity and also day trade tvix when opportunity arises. but i warn u. it is for experience trader only. i only day trade tvix. don't hold them overnight because you can blow up your account with tvix. also i don't tell friends or family anything about what to do with their money. i don't give free financial advice. you know the saying "damn if you do or damn if you don't." i don't care about anyone but my account...that's it. anything else?
Vinny. A week later and we are higher What happened to Black Monday? Was your chart wrong?
I agree that the fundamentals are (way!) strong, but don't agree that 2018 will be a repeat of 2017. The p/e [ http://www.multpl.com/ or http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/ ] suggests the pricing pendulum has swung far enough to make continued pricing growth pretty darn hard, and earnings have to *catch*up*! Were earnings to decline, we'd see a solid plummet (index-wise) to a 14 or 15 p/e before the Buy button was reliably hit. And that takes us WAY THE HELL down. (There would be moanings of a Crash and such, but it would only be a sound re-pricing.... There's the difference between The Economy and The Market right there!)
So, I vote "No" and find us doing a re-do of 2015 in the S&P: essentially flat, with some February-like swings, and April-like waves:
When The Fed is back to Happy, The Market will be back to Happy, too.
Last edited:
10-year @ 3%. Is it really the end of it for stocks?
Relax. Market is in a range right now. Also spy been down since 4/18/18. Let me throw u some bone. Money moving out of tech and into energy. Making hand over fist this last few weeks playing with energy stocks.
Last edited: