Von Greyerz: In The End The Dollar Goes To Zero & The US Defaults
- Thread starter BKR88
- Start date
Typical ZH article.
And then what ?
Some guy said once, -
,,I always asked and then what ?
This is how i made my wealth"
Russia defaulted recently. Not so much have changed.
US defaulting with all of those nuclear aircraft carriers and submarines, wouldn't look much different.
,,- We will buy North Korea's bonds from now on.
- Great. Go ahead. See how it goes"
Some guy said once, -
,,I always asked and then what ?
This is how i made my wealth"
Russia defaulted recently. Not so much have changed.
US defaulting with all of those nuclear aircraft carriers and submarines, wouldn't look much different.
,,- We will buy North Korea's bonds from now on.
- Great. Go ahead. See how it goes"
In the 1950's postage was 3 cents and now 60 cents, 95% decline in the dollar.
In the 1950's gold was $35 and now $1800, 98% decline in the dollar.
So the value of the dollar has dropped between 95% to 98% over the last 70 years.
How high does the price of postage and gold have to go for the dollar to be wallpaper?
Government debt will never be paid off. Default has always been the long term plan because there is no other plan.
In the 1950's gold was $35 and now $1800, 98% decline in the dollar.
So the value of the dollar has dropped between 95% to 98% over the last 70 years.
How high does the price of postage and gold have to go for the dollar to be wallpaper?
Government debt will never be paid off. Default has always been the long term plan because there is no other plan.
If that continues, by end of the century a stamp with be $12. No big deal. Average wage would be around $1 million a year.
The dollar replaces the cent. No need for quarters etc. Everything priced in whole dollars and life carries on.
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Then just buy a boatload of forever stamps now at $0.60, and sell them at $11 at end of century. That's a major percentage gain in your investment.
Well people do collect stamps. But I prefer real estate and gold. Hard assets.
Forget collection value, I am talking about commerce.
There are people who bought rolls and rolls of forever stamps when they were introduced at like 40 cents 15 years ago, and selling them now for 55 cents. That's a nice ROI!
The original point, was 77 years time. Given that we both be dead in 77 years. Its going to be any great grandkids who will be crashing out.
I think they will prefer to inherit real estate and gold. Stamps haven't withstood the test of time.
In reality my kids/grandkids will probably blow anything i leave them, any great grandkids probably wont see anything. They say Inherited wealth rarely lasts more than 3 generations.
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CPI Dec 1952: 26.7
CPI Oct 2022: 298.012
Or an annual rate of about 3.5%. A bit higher than the 2% target rate, but probably sustainable indefinitely.
Year-over-year inflation (measured by CPI) appears to have peaked in June, instantaneous inflation (measured by 7mnth centered weighted ma to filter out measurement noise) a few months earlier. Both in line with mainstream predictions from last year of a peak in the second quarter.
TLDR -- neither our currency nor our economy appear to be in danger of imminent (or immanent) collapse.
