Volume--- how to use it and WHY

[marketsurfer]

funny how a legit thread gets taken over by those pushing their own systems/methods. addressing the wizard, here we go

surf: please provide some kind of indication of the worth of this "logical system" outside of the anecdotes and dubuios claims.

wizard: you must believeeeee. stop being a heretic, belieeeve the perfection, believeeeee what i say

surf: sorry, i required more proof than what you have shown

wizard: come to floooorida, come to wisconsoooon, jooon us to extract mooooney from the markets like maaagic-see the magic with your own eyes

surf: no, show it in public, real or fake money, i don't care. show how using the fixed environment allows you to gain an edge in order to predict the next move

wizard: noooo. you must come to see the wizard perform live so that you may see it by your own 2 eyes in the company of believers and become a believer

surf: ahhh, i don't think so. ever hear of uri geller?

and the conversation goes on and on, generally with some kind of nasty remark from the wizard without substance.

truly unusual, surf

 

[ehorn]

Quote from marketsurfer:
...truly unusual...

The thread was initiated with a title; "Volume - how to use it and WHY", a link was posted then a belief was expressed. The OP concluded with another link...

Perhaps a clarification would produce more relevant dialog. What was the intent or purpose of the thread?

 

[TraderZones]

Quote from Buy1Sell2:

Volume analysis falls into the category of "too much information" and should be discarded as it is not a necessary and useful tool--Ishmael

+1. If it does not offer outperformance, then it is a boat anchor, not an aid. The little evidence I have seen on volume did not seem encouraging

 

[Eight]

Quote from marketsurfer:

funny how a legit thread gets taken over by those pushing their own systems/methods. addressing the wizard, here we go

surf: please provide some kind of indication of the worth of this "logical system" outside of the anecdotes and dubuios claims.

wizard: you must believeeeee. stop being a heretic, belieeeve the perfection, believeeeee what i say

surf: sorry, i required more proof than what you have shown

wizard: come to floooorida, come to wisconsoooon, jooon us to extract mooooney from the markets like maaagic-see the magic with your own eyes

surf: no, show it in public, real or fake money, i don't care. show how using the fixed environment allows you to gain an edge in order to predict the next move

wizard: noooo. you must come to see the wizard perform live so that you may see it by your own 2 eyes in the company of believers and become a believer

surf: ahhh, i don't think so. ever hear of uri geller?

and the conversation goes on and on, generally with some kind of nasty remark from the wizard without substance.

truly unusual, surf

OBV is your idea of volume analysis? Wow, go for it... please, don't let us slow you in your eternal quest for whatever...

 

[MandelbrotSet]

Quote from marketsurfer:

funny how a legit thread gets taken over by those pushing their own systems/methods. addressing the wizard, here we go

surf: please provide some kind of indication of the worth of this "logical system" outside of the anecdotes and dubuios claims.

wizard: you must believeeeee. stop being a heretic, belieeeve the perfection, believeeeee what i say

surf: sorry, i required more proof than what you have shown

wizard: come to floooorida, come to wisconsoooon, jooon us to extract mooooney from the markets like maaagic-see the magic with your own eyes

surf: no, show it in public, real or fake money, i don't care. show how using the fixed environment allows you to gain an edge in order to predict the next move

wizard: noooo. you must come to see the wizard perform live so that you may see it by your own 2 eyes in the company of believers and become a believer

surf: ahhh, i don't think so. ever hear of uri geller?

and the conversation goes on and on, generally with some kind of nasty remark from the wizard without substance.

truly unusual, surf

LOL, +5

That description fits more than one GURU in these parts, hereabout.

 

[MandelbrotSet]

Quote from Eight:

OBV is your idea of volume analysis? Wow, go for it... please, don't let us slow you in your eternal quest for whatever...

This guy is a paper trader, so you really should take what he says with a grain or two ...

And speaking of eternal quests, it sounds like he still doesn't have a clue ...

Quote from Eight:

... I've been studying charts for ten years and I can barely keep above water..

Link


Wow, ET really has hit the skids ...

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from jprad:

Prof, as Eight mentioned, you probably get a lot of clustered signals. If so, is it backtesting, fundamentals or news specific to each market that you use to rank each one?

Yes they get clustered occasionally but I use the strength to determine the best positions.

i.e. Confirmed Trend (as I define it), whether strength is completely in my favor or neutral and finally my target oscillation whether it is weak or strong.

I don't believe in back-testing just forward testing. I only trust that which I can utilize in real time. Back-testing can give too many signals that can be fudged. It takes a lot longer period of time to make sure your method is consistent but in the long run it pays off.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Thanks for the response. However, I now have to ask you the obvious question. If your method can be traded across all markets and all styles (intraday, swing and longer term), then it ostensibly has no meaningful scalability limitations. Further, as I recall, you report very high signal reliability. And finally, you follow a dizzying number of markets. All that being the case, and given that you have been at this for several years, what prevents you from joining the ranks of the likes of Soros, Tudor Jones and Cohen?

I understand that you teach trading, and that's all well and good. But none of us initially enters the field of trading for its teaching opportunities. That may well be an offshoot, but I doubt it is ever the initial motivation among starry-eyed newcomers. So even if you didn't want the headache of managing OPM, what prevents you from scaling the very heights of the trading world with simple compounding over time?

When you back-test how long in an acceptable period to test? My opinion is about 10 years. Well I only forward test so I evaluate my signals in real-time only. If I get Swing signals that only occur 2 to 3 times a year then over 10 years of testing I will have a decent set of results, correct? I've only had the ability to automate the Swing trades and monitor that many markets for the last 18 to 24 months. They are doing great but I'll need about 100 more months of testing and trading to make my results "up to my standards". I monitor the energy markets now, as an example but don't currently trade them do to the large margin requirements. You can imagine that if 10 Nat Gas charts set up to execute that will require over $250K margin and I trade with about half that. I currently only swing trade 90% of my swing account but it is growing nicely.

In the meantime the intraday trading is what I do to earn a living. Lots of real-time live trades can be logged there. I will never manage OPM for obvious reasons. (I'll state them for the clarity challenged). If a system works well, then is no need to trade OPM and deal with the angst and aggravations that brings. The teaching is simply a break from the day-to-day riggers of the screens. I only teach a handful of classes each year and they are attended by old students looking to fine tune their skills or mostly new students that are solely referrals from the old students. These individuals want to learn because of the consistency they have seen from their friends trading or hedging. My classes are on a request basis and since my son is getting older I'm cutting out most of my classes for the coming years so I can just be "dad". Something I misedd out on with my 2 daughters.

My goal is to present my research complete from start to finish (about 25 years when done) to the industry and let them do with it what they will, embrace it or laugh at it I do not care. The one thing they will never be able to do is refute it because with 10 years of real-time testing the normal back-testing and fudge factor whining won't hold water. I'm extremely meticulous at my record keeping too.

I get a kick out of the tire kickers that are scared to get behind the wheel and simply try it. It is hilarious.

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from blolinski:

Only when asked to prove you had some money in your account

I don't feel the need to show children how much money is in my wallet?

 

[ProfLogic]

Quote from Sushi:

who cares ifthe guy has millions or noting? He make money selling 600 dolla books and xpensive courses worlwide. Never once has guy shown the method to work. Never once had student come here to vouch for guy. He repackage old ideas make outrageous claims and the nooobs follow. Nothing new here folks. Move along

I don't need to . . . prove it doesn't, tire kicker.