Volume analysis is to be discarded as it is "too much information"

[TraderZones]

Quote from ARealGannTrader:

Jack and Spyder state that when one goes into dry-up only two things can happen, volume can increase in the way of a breakout into a new trend, or volume can increase in the way of continuing the present trend.

or volume can go down in both situations or it can stay the same.

The above two concepts are immutable. They must occur.

Only if one believes in it. Again, volume guarantees nothing, just as Jack and Spyder avoid being clearly audited like the plague. When you make claims like Jack does, telling others in gory detail about his trading methods and luring newbies down this road, then if you refuse to back it up with proof, that shouts loudly that you are fraud. The educated demand proof. The uneducated ooh and ahh.

For those of u who do not use volume directly, volume is doing it's thing beneath ur nose, whether u c it or not.

Volume does its thing. But so do many other things that have no predictive power. All you are doing, is stating that something changes and expecting others to think that has any meaning or value to make profitable trades.

 

[TraderZones]

Quote from UgoCerletti:

The financial industry is geared to volume. On the buy and sell side, those of us who transact size know that price moves toward volume.

No, the financial industry is NOT geared towards volume. They are geared towards arbing small inefficiencies, taking advantage of their trading size often running their own in-house trading floors for their internal customers (like their wealth management units), and numerous other complex algorithms

that is why they hire at very high salaries and bonuses, the Quants, the IT folks, the financial engineering/analyst types and others.

They do not sit around doing basic volume analysis like Jack Hersheyites proscribe.

 

[TraderZones]

Quote from MandelbrotSet:

It's never gonna happen.

None of those so-called "volume aficianados" are ever gonna step up to the plate and prove themselves in a definitive fashion as being able to use the techniques to trade profitably.

Whereas the OP not only steps up to the plate everyday trading multiple-instruments, he even has an ES Journal where he continues to demonstrate his trading beliefs (which are not mine, btw) in real-time.

... so there you go.

Have a great weekend!

you are correct. His response was one more time ducking truth.

What Jack said "we don't need or trust the independent auditing sites so instead we post our own track record"

What Jack meant "because they might blow holes in our arguments by showing our stuff is basically random and our claims either have lousy stats and Hold&Hope methods and we don't have a leg to stand on."

To Jack, Sharpe is an electronics maker, Profit Factor is how much money he hopes to make off his name, and Max Drawdown is the name of a party clown.

 

[ARealGannTrader]

Quote from TraderZones:

Volume does its thing. But so do many other things that have no predictive power. All you are doing, is stating that something changes and expecting others to think that has any meaning or value to make profitable trades. [/B]

Volume, if u had taken the time to look at this is never used in isolation. A confluence of events occurs that tells u something is afoot. If u don't like Jack's name, replace it with Wycoff so that u can remove the mental block.

If u watch volume and it is peaking, something is going to happen. The trend is going to stall or reverse.

If u look at volume and it is in dry up. Something is going to happen, the trend is going to resume or reverse.

Any tool is isolation is going to get u killed, and that includes price.

 

[Arthur Deco]

Quote from Thunderdog:

Here is my request for those of you who trade using an objective, systematic method. As you trade using price and volume (I won't refer to the use of indicators of one form or another because I don't use them and because they are beyond the scope of this thread), keep a parallel journal of hypothetical trades for the same period based solely on the price portion of your method, completely ignoring the volume component. Then, after a length of time and a sufficient sample of trades, both real using volume and hypothetical trades disregarding volume, compare the two. If the reliability and/or profitability is meaningfully higher with the use of voume, then it would certainly appear that you are deriving benefit from the information provided by volume. If not, however, then maybe it is time for you to revisit your assumptions.

Thunderdog, my cardiologist advises that I not read these P-V threads, but I guess I have a death wish. No disrespect to your blind study approach, but I would also recommend a placebo test: trade off of volume only, without price. The Hershey canon is quite specific as to the construction of "guasians", as to DU and VooDu levels, as to pace, and as to the price motions (retrograde or Copernican) which must perforce follow. They decline to make real-time calls on the full method, but surely calling results in an exspermiment would not vileate their ethics. As wealthy as they all must be by now, and given their avowed philanthropic focus, one would think that they could afford to fund such a demonsteration of the power of the method.

 

[ARealGannTrader]

Quote from Arthur Deco:

Thunderdog, my cardiologist advises that I not read these P-V threads, but I guess I have a death wish. No disrespect to your blind study approach, but I would also recommend a placebo test: trade off of volume only, without price. The Hershey canon is quite specific as to the construction of "guasians", as to DU and VooDu levels, as to pace, and as to the price motions (retrograde or Copernican) which must perforce follow. They decline to make real-time calls on the full method, but surely calling results in an exspermiment would not vileate their ethics. As wealthy as they all must be by now, and given their avowed philanthropic focus, one would think that they could afford to fund such a demonsteration of the power of the method.

Deco,

Volume Analysis is nothing new. I think u guys just need someone to hate.

Don't like Jack, but want to learn anyway?

http://club.ino.com/trading/2009/01/“saturday-seminars”-the-traders-battle-plan/

 

[Arthur Deco]

ARG-T, I thank you kindly for your reference to a source of education on volume, but I am old dog and cut my teeth on an even earlier source, Richard Schabacker, who pretty much puts everyone else to shame, even today. And, truth to tell, I am highly resistant to unlearning what works for me. Speaking mathematically, volume is both unneccessary and insufficient in any proof of a trading method. Counterexamples to theories of volume and price routinely scroll through my trading screen on all time frames, and I can't afford inconsistency in MY theory of what works. For unlike many theoreticians and non-playing spectators (like Jack), I actually trade. I do look forward to reading your posts, as I invariably enjoy your brevity, wit and passion.

 

[MandelbrotSet]

Quote from Arthur Deco:

Thunderdog, my cardiologist advises that I not read these P-V threads, but I guess I have a death wish. No disrespect to your blind study approach, but I would also recommend a placebo test: trade off of volume only, without price. The Hershey canon is quite specific as to the construction of "guasians", as to DU and VooDu levels, as to pace, and as to the price motions (retrograde or Copernican) which must perforce follow. They decline to make real-time calls on the full method, but surely calling results in an exspermiment would not vileate their ethics. As wealthy as they all must be by now, and given their avowed philanthropic focus, one would think that they could afford to fund such a demonsteration of the power of the method.

LOL

Thanks for the laughs, Arthur, you keep it light as always.

 

[Thunderdog]

Quote from ARealGannTrader:

...What volume does is give u a heads up to traders that follow it. They will get in on a prorata reading, and will get out by the time u figure out the direction

I don't know what you mean by a "prorata reading" in this context. However, if you are perhaps suggesting that a trader can enter before price gives an indication, then he may as well flip a coin. Did you not write earlier that price could go one way or the other on higher volume (or lower, or whatever)?

Quote from ARealGannTrader:

...Jack and Spyder state that when one goes into dry-up only two things can happen, volume can increase in the way of a breakout into a new trend, or volume can increase in the way of continuing the present trend...

Bottom line is that price gives the cue on direction. If you move before price, your own argument suggests that it is premature from your quote above. And if you move after volume confirms, then your entry point may be at a less desirable dollar risk level. And if volume is to be a concurrent indicator, then is it one of those instances where volume goes up when price continues or when it reverses? Or is it perhaps one of those instances where volume declines when price continues or when it reverses? Have you really worked all that out? Really? With better than coin flip reliability? Really?

In any event, I think price dictates direction (of price). To act sooner is to act precipitously (read your own quote above) unless you're gifted, which I am not.

 

[Arthur Deco]

Laughs, JJ? You know I am always deadly serious and seriously deadly. And you have provided a dying old fossil many hours of entertainment baiting the forces of evil on ET. So I am happy to provide you some abusement as well.