Volatility

[duard]

From 5-20-06

All in good fun but.......

Small Speculators Have Upped Their Bullish Bets Now at Their Longest in Over a Year


So......

Yes we bounce and suck up the public and small spec money then whamm. Down we go. We might even bounce a 1 or 2%. But historically after this much selling the bounce will be met with selling.

Volatility has officially squeezed.

Good Luck to everyone this is my last post.

 

[TheStudent]

I think measured standard deviation in the SPX was lower in 1995 ... so maybe lowest volatility in one decade.

Quote from duard:

Well I believe the party is now officially over. After enduring the lowest volatility in DECADES we spurted higher on mixed jobs data and wage increases. Yes we broke out, yes we are in an uptrend, yes the breakout came after an extended consolidation, yes earnings are up, blah, blah, blah.

But now the drunken partygoers must get in the their cars and drive home.

 

[duard]

Bill Cara's blog gets a couple hundred thousand hits a day. Today he wrote:

"V" stands for Volatility, Tues., May 23, 2006, 10:25 AM

The Volatility Factor has returned to markets. At tops and bottoms of market cycles, trading volatility becomes extreme. The charts below, from Bi-weekly through Weekly, Daily and Half-hourly data shows a disturbing picture.

Continue reading ""V" stands for Volatility, Tues., May 23, 2006, 10:25 AM"

Posted by Bill Cara on May 23, 2006 10:25:32 AM


Doin' a Lefty, good luck

 

[newbunch]

Quote from TheStudent:

I think measured standard deviation in the SPX was lower in 1995 ... so maybe lowest volatility in one decade.

According to my volatility measures (many ways to measure based on time frame and period), volatility has not been this low since 1994.

 

[Cheese]

Quote from duard:
Volatility has expanded recently with an increase in the average true range for daily, hourly, 5 minute, and 1 minute timeframes in the stock index futures. ..

If you have an accurate methodology in place, more volatility just means a bigger pay day for the day. Either you can mark off bigger buy/sells with reference to a larger timeframe or volume charts.
Or using a smaller time frame (5min) or smaller range bar charts you can micro trade all the moves of the day. This includes the smaller gyrations within the bigger gyrations.