Volatility
- Thread starter duard
- Start date
i don't gauge s&p on the support/resistance basis, i have found it very tough with this mother-of-all indices - looking at this downward trend in volatility, i am guessing that bigger players targeting more aggressive returns have had little choice but to short volatility on any significant spikes up - therefore, i can guess only that we may continue to see the behavior similar to some of the action in the 90's, i.e. there will be event-driven or macro-driven spikes in volatility, such as Katrina, oil, politics etc. - similar to the lurch in yields in '94, the LatAm in '97, the Russia/LTCM in '98 etc. but those spikes in volatility may continue to be shorted / market bought until the environment changes.
as for shorter term, i have been following this hyperbolic move in the broker-dealers since the end of last year - and the monstrous breakout in the banks / financials in the last two days - the techs may be weak, but when the largest component sector of the s&p is breaking out to new all time highs with such force, i will be watching this move closely and who knows depending on how it pulls back, it may find s&p back at 1300 - all the best.
An important question here that I haven't seen addressed:
Some are predicting a stock rally, perhaps dominated by large caps, if/when the Fed 'pauses'.
Which begs the question: If US market rallies from here what should we expect in volatility??
Typically volatility falls in a rising market, but does it fall if the market is rallying to a climactic top? And can it still fall meaningfully from here?
I'm thinking a last-gasp rally could keep vol depressed through the rest of the year ...
Some are predicting a stock rally, perhaps dominated by large caps, if/when the Fed 'pauses'.
Which begs the question: If US market rallies from here what should we expect in volatility??
Typically volatility falls in a rising market, but does it fall if the market is rallying to a climactic top? And can it still fall meaningfully from here?
I'm thinking a last-gasp rally could keep vol depressed through the rest of the year ...
Are you guys using the Vix as the Volatility measurement?