Can you recommend some good papers on vix futures
I'm not a big practitioner in pricing vix futures,
through I can suggest that sources
- 2 articles "more than you wanted to know" from JPMorgan and GS guys,
they're fine in explaining the origin of variance swaps, their idea for accurate volatility bets with constant gamma, their easy static replication (cause it's just a portfolio of options with concrete weights...though weights gradually change over time)
- the article about varswap replication (2018) seems to give an initial guidance, ideas, how to approximate the volatility index futures with portfolio of options, it have more approximations in it, different approaches giving different accuracy.
- also I was looking for some ideas of "pricing VIX with ML", I had a hypothesis like I can get historical data, train neural network with inputs like (VIX_INDEX, HV20, HV30, HV50, ATM_IV_30D, ATM_IV_60D, ATM_IV_90D etc) for many many years of daily historical data
and that model will learn how to price VIX futures curve out-of-sample, with some (hope small) error. Though it's only idea, I haven't tried it seriously.
- vix thorough look mostly about ideas how VIX index value can be manipulated, slightly unrelated to pricing
Also a little cheetsheet about different of variance and volatility swaps
https://quant.stackexchange.com/que...milar-to-a-volatility-swap-or-a-variance-swap
I should mention, that it's only theoretical ideas,
I haven't any role in trading firm with real production quant models yet.