VIX trade for 8/18 exp

Quote from atticus:

I think it's a decent play. I missed your post or I would have done it. Cash > 30 is a very high prob through SOQ.
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atticus, i thought you were pretty big on risk/reward ratios. that's risking 2 for 0.5 gain. Win probability is high but we could have a gap up in this crazy market monday and hit it.

Havent done any vix so maybe there is something fundamental i am missing, can you explain a bit more why this is a decent trade? what's SOQ?
 
Agree with newguy. John if you expect the market not to recover in the coming week maybe look into a decent spread on the SPY itself. For me at least, Though I hate to play against time the VIX is all about trying to score big $$$. Holding 47.5 aug call and 35 sep call, wrote a 45 sep call.
 
Quote from newguy05:

atticus, i thought you were pretty big on risk/reward ratios. that's risking 2 for 0.5 gain. Win probability is high but we could have a gap up in this crazy market monday and hit it.

Havent done any vix so maybe there is something fundamental i am missing, can you explain a bit more why this is a decent trade? what's SOQ?
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I didn't trade it. Mkt ended well but the VIX is unlikely to drop a bigger figure than it did late in the week. Two days to expiration and >6 handles otm. SOQ is the expiration mark at the open.
 
Quote from atticus:

I think it's a decent play. I missed your post or I would have done it. Cash > 30 is a very high prob through SOQ.
More...
Out of curiosity, do you hold delta in S&P futures against your VIX spread/fly positions to immunize it against skew and makie it a pure term structure play?
 
Quote from sle:

Out of curiosity, do you hold delta in S&P futures against your VIX spread/fly positions to immunize it against skew and makie it a pure term structure play?
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I typically ratio the switches, but do not normally hedge the option flies, only the unimodal or singles. I will hedge single options or single VIX futures in ES futures or the risk-reversal (preferred).

I typically spread net long VIX futures deltas in ~25D short SPX/ES/SPY puts.

No hedge on the current condor.
 
Quote from eldorado1:

Agree with newguy. John if you expect the market not to recover in the coming week maybe look into a decent spread on the SPY itself. For me at least, Though I hate to play against time the VIX is all about trying to score big $$$. Holding 47.5 aug call and 35 sep call, wrote a 45 sep call.
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I assume you bought the 47 and sold the 45 as the VIX dropped. John's not losing on edge as it's not poorly legged.
 
Quote from newguy05:

atticus, i thought you were pretty big on risk/reward ratios. that's risking 2 for 0.5 gain. Win probability is high but we could have a gap up in this crazy market monday and hit it.

Havent done any vix so maybe there is something fundamental i am missing, can you explain a bit more why this is a decent trade? what's SOQ?
More...

I have no problem with a 4:1 risk if I perceive the expectancy to be there. It's a 4:1 wager on SOQ >30, which I believe to be a good bet.
 
Quote from atticus:

I have no problem with a 4:1 risk if I perceive the expectancy to be there. It's a 4:1 wager on SOQ >30, which I believe to be a good bet.
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imo, to touch 30 spot by tuesday close, you gotta rallymode really straight up and not swing with any down moves.

look at playing september this week if you see spot >32 holding. it can be as good or better than the last august play...
 
Quote from sellindexvol66:

imo, to touch 30 spot by tuesday close, you gotta rallymode really straight up and not swing with any down moves.

look at playing september this week if you see spot >32 holding. it can be as good or better than the last august play...
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Yeah, I can't imagine we close under it by SOQ, but in five days...?
 
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