VIX to 100 by Tomorrow?

Insanity.. you know it's hit a top ....I remember when all the stock market cheerleedars were piling everyone into gold at 2000. Saying it could go to ,5k. Pure insanity...
 
Turveyd said:
so cost of $500,000 ??? at $100 value $175,000,000 Best single profit trade EVER!!!
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I remember the story.

Knowing it's fairly rare for the VIX >65 at any time.. let alone call it "from now to April".. that is one heck of a catch... and there may be more to come.

So, there you go. You wanna be a rich options superstar? Do that!

:)
 
Scataphagos said:
Someone Just Bet That VIX Will Top 100 By Tomorrow

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/vix-tops-60-highest-2008-screams-intervene-now

Regardless.... remember that guy who in January bought 50,000 VIX April 65 calls @$.10?

He's looking good!

:)
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Who knows what the combo behind this trade could be. Doubt that with this kind of sum, someone just throws out an idea of "hey, let's go for a 100". Who knows, though, anything is possible, maybe he knows there are tons of stops underneath in the SP500 which cascades into a flash crash, sort of like today in currencies.


i bet there are tons of retail vix sellers out there thinking that it's easy money, how high can it go, right ? and it creeps and creeps higher taking out all the tight stops/margins.
 
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I suspect that it was a hedge. I have no idea what will happen and learned that it's absolutely futile to predict overall market direction on such a short term basis. I think most of the panic today was due to the huge drop in oil and credit risks that brings. To the extent that's not priced in, there would need to be some other significant negative catalyst to keep the VIX running higher. Sure it could happen, I didn't see the oil drop coming last week. But I think it will take more than the number of CV cases in the US doubling from today to tomorrow. It's hard to keep the VIX high for long as it requires people to keep paying more and more for insurance. At some point, the insurance is not worth of the cost and it's cheaper to simply take the loss and reduce exposure.
 
ET180 said:
I suspect that it was a hedge. I have no idea what will happen and learned that it's absolutely futile to predict overall market direction on such a short term basis. I think most of the panic today was due to the huge drop in oil and credit risks that brings. To the extent that's not priced in, there would need to be some other significant negative catalyst to keep the VIX running higher. Sure it could happen, I didn't see the oil drop coming last week. But I think it will take more than the number of CV cases in the US doubling from today to tomorrow. It's hard to keep the VIX high for long as it requires people to keep paying more and more for insurance. At some point, the insurance is not worth of the cost and it's cheaper to simply take the loss and reduce exposure.
More...

Sure, theoretically. I think we're all misjuding the reasons behind market moves. If everybody were buying insurance and betting downside with put option buying then the market wouldn't go down one cent. Cause you are already PRICING the downside with your premium that you pay. So, you are most probably gonna end up with worthless options. The only way you profit from your short is when tomorrow another idiot is willing to accept to take over your position at a lower price. So, in a sense, it creates a pyramid scheme. And the only price direction with a downward betting pyramid scheme can only be upwards cause eventually you need to get out of your position.

Since the market is not going upwards, i'm in serious doubt, it's the heavy selling that makes prices go down. It makes much more sense that lots of retailers are bottom picking the underlying or top picking the vix. And since they always use tight stops the market has nowhere else to go but down (and vix up) until they are out of capital.

And not to forget the big option players. If someone big gets trapped in a combo where he needs to keep on selling when market goes down only to magnify the move by being the only seller and the market keeps on dropping the bid so you have noone to buy from. Given the huges sums, i’m sure it’s very market moving event

Anybody rational, with no leverage and long term in mind can only be a buyer from these levels. Why would you sell out your stock at 20%+ discount when the bond yields are all down to zero making the risk premium of stocks as attractive as ever.
 
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