VIX over $30 Thursday

M

MrDODGE

ECB meets and most believe they will raise their rate
-Dollar hits a new low
-Oil to $150 on dollar weakness

Unemployment rate goes to 5.8% - 6.0%
-More selling in the market, 400+ points on the Dow
-Index charts should be close to vertical


Could we see enough panic Thursday to send the VIX to $30? This is a question not a prediction.

Let's discuss...
 
just because most everyone is short secondary to bad news and general climate doesn't mean we can't go lower....

the FOMC had the jobs numbers at their last meeting and they didn't cut, if they really wanted to be preemptive, they would have cut...

leads one to believe, the jobs number may not be as bad as expected, and thats the key statement...'as bad as expected'...

if the MM's are on the other side of the short biased trades and are counterparty to everyones shorts, a little bit of good news will be used to ream the general market.
 
I don't know if that will be the catalyst but I don't think we go down hard from here without a significant bounce of some kind that traps some people long. It think it comes tomorrow and/or Wednesday and will take us back up to the top of the down trending channel where risk reward for new shorts will be better than it is here. Volume, market internals (which have been terrible), and individual stocks breaaking their down trendlines should give an indication if it is just a bounce or something more.

Either way I would be amazed if we don't make substantially lower lows this year. Question is does it come in the next few weeks or late summer/fall after chopping around all summer?
 
Quote from MrDODGE:

ECB meets and most believe they will raise their rate
-Dollar hits a new low
-Oil to $150 on dollar weakness
More...

Inflation in Europe has the opposite effect on its currency. Same goes with slower growth.
 
If grandma had balls she'd be grandpa. It's not a prediction, but a question? I PREDICT VIX > 20.00 on Thursday and prices will fluctuate!

The bar is summarily lowered another notch with this fine thread.
 
Watch the ISM numbers tomorrow morning.

Anything above 50 is good-decent and anything above 54 will just set off a wildfire ...

Thoughts?
 
I thought today and last Fri would be a big step down then choppy. The amount of buyers amazes me. I wonder if we dont see the new low until after the summer. I cant see how this is held up.

They are buying 09 recovery now, the market may need to take in some 3rd quarter data for them to get it.

Or I am wrong and I am missing a great buying opportunity here........lol
 
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