VIX is moving

Poljot · Oct 20, 2020

6 consecutive up days in VIX.
Are we in for a spike again?

KCalhoun · Oct 20, 2020

Hope so, I'm long UVXY. Good chart observation, I'm using VIX 30 as resistance, will scale up if it stays over 30 for at least a couple of days

Millionaire · Oct 20, 2020

Poljot said:
6 consecutive up days in VIX.
Are we in for a spike again?

Increased market volatility due to election uncertainty.

Market will go up after the election regardless of who wins, as things will become more certain, but before that the market will be uncertain about the result...

Overnight · Oct 20, 2020

I predict (there's that word again) that it will spike above 50 by election night.

newwurldmn · Oct 20, 2020

Poljot said:
6 consecutive up days in VIX.
Are we in for a spike again?

View attachment 241971

No. This is an example of charts not telling you the whole story. August was a run up in vol caused by supply demand.
This time was started with the lunacy of our president flip flopping on stimulus.

bone · Oct 21, 2020

ZeroHedge was talking about a whale who bought 360,000 VIX Puts this past Friday. He does alot of OTM stuff that's mostly worthless but he hits some giant winners on occasion. Word is he made something like $2.6B in February being long OTM Calls.

newwurldmn · Oct 21, 2020

bone said:
ZeroHedge was talking about a whale who bought 360,000 VIX Puts this past Friday. He does alot of OTM stuff that's mostly worthless but he hits some giant winners on occasion. Word is he made something like $2.6B in February being long OTM Calls.

no reason to believe it’s the same guy.

the call buyer publicly regretted the strategy even though it ultimately earned.

Poljot · Oct 21, 2020

Last time in 2016 VIX began moving 10 days before election day and actually peaked 2 days before, on Nov 4th (Friday).
Some of uncertainty evaporated during the weekend.
That was a move of 9,5 points from a base of 13.

Now base is at 25 and it started moving a week earlier.
If it increases by 5 more points in the coming 7 days, then we're at around 35 on the 28th.
I expect 35-45 on Friday 30th.

maxinger · Oct 21, 2020

Poljot said:
6 consecutive up days in VIX.
Are we in for a spike again?

View attachment 241971

It is ranging between 24 and 30.

It will continue to range between 24 and 30,
regardless of candlestick colors, until the chart
says it is not ranging.

Poljot · Oct 26, 2020

The chart is saying we have a breakout.
I have not checked the news today, but it is saying there must have been some bad news or increased uncertainty...
Perhaps there is not much added value in reading the news and looking for explanations when this gap candle says it all.
I wonder what is causing more volatility nowadays: Trump tweets or covid cases?