VIX future can be easily "controlled" and XIV exploded was a well plan

Secret Santa said:
I have exactly the opposite bias, tend to hold on to my longer vol positions too long. Usually that means that after I make money on a spike, I sit on it for an extra day and always regret it.
More...


even after 10 plus years of doing these exclusively; i'm still coming to terms with thinking a spread too much as if they rebound like an equity when the market reverses. you name any multi day vol spike that a mid curve short vol spread is not flatter even if the index is well off its highs and i'm buying u dinner. at the same time its hard to close the shit up on the first initial spike cause u are wrongly conditioned to think it will "recover".
same goes for long vol of course. obviously i'm still working on scaling in and out on spikes smarter lol.
 
guru said:
BTW, big money is no longer traded by hand. So if you work as a quant or programmer at Goldman, Citadel, etc - now your only job is to game other trading bots, including studying their behavior and responses to your actions if you have sufficient influence on the market. And if someone discovers how/if they can trigger a selloff, the rest is just execution. It will happen again because obviously selloffs do happen and therefore are triggered by something. And someone still makes big pile of money, while smoking stuff.
More...
you can but you have to be v v well capitalized
 
sellindexvol66 said:
even after 10 plus years of doing these exclusively; i'm still coming to terms with thinking a spread too much as if they rebound like an equity when the market reverses. you name any multi day vol spike that a mid curve short vol spread is not flatter even if the index is well off its highs and i'm buying u dinner. at the same time its hard to close the shit up on the first initial spike cause u are wrongly conditioned to think it will "recover".
More...
How did you do in this little woopty-do?

TommyR said:
you can but you have to be v v well capitalized
More...
To what, move S&P? Yeah, VERY VERY WELL CAPITALIZED :)
 
sorry i meant the algos not goldman. i know you know this and were joking but i meant the bots are way to stupid to start a crash and they wouldnt last long if it happened because they can't afford it so quickly get turned off and stop market making. only the very best bots in conneticut could afford a 7bn usd drawdown most people lost shit loads. the only people who made money were probably the idiot who put in the order and them.
 
sle said:
How did you do in this little woopty-do?


To what, move S&P? Yeah, VERY VERY WELL CAPITALIZED :)
More...


it's not over but same as always lol.

went in with long vol front flies (typical carry on low vol); then did loads and loads of short vol from march after what i thought was a good smack down only to see it just shift a large amount more inverted from my entry.

same old me, now looking for 15-17 vix to hold for a few days.
 
sellindexvol66 said:
it's not over but same as always lol.

went in with long vol front flies (typical carry on low vol); then did loads and loads of short vol from march after what i thought was a good smack down only to see it just shift a large amount more inverted from my entry.

same old me, now looking for 15-17 vix to hold for a few days.
More...
What structure you are using for short vol? Are you hedging with ES?
 
guru said:
I smoke my own stuff.
You can do a lot with a few $billion, especially when followed by $trillion of quant hedge funds. It's a known fact that the market went to the sky on January 31st and the largest trend-following bots followed. How else did it go so high? Did you do this? Or everyone was smoking something?
And it's also a fact that all this was followed by a huge sell-off in February, again followed by trend-following bots, and then the wide-spread panic. Or how else did this selloff start? Did you do this? Or 100 hedge funds started to smoke something all at the same time?
It's also a fact that David Casner's team made $200 million on Feb 5th. Did he just smoke something and cash fell out of the sky? Right.
I'm going back to smoking my own stuff.
More...
i love this. or..everyone was piling into equity etfs all year with the trump tax thing and the long gamma from these was being offloaded onto all the banks so the equity desks were very long low delta downside puts which hadn't been doing great until then. agree the hedgefunds had been smoking for sure the biggest trade they had on was short outright vix calls or bitcoin and the inverse etf's were also short topside obviously which didn't help. just saying possible alternative explanation to the vix spx pump and dump scheme but i know that goes on a lot.
 
srinir said:
What structure you are using for short vol? Are you hedging with ES?
More...


for the most part i do everything inside the vx term structure, although sometimes i will go with
the ES for hedging. long vol in front spreads trying to structure a fly to earn regardless of vol, then short vol in the middle curve if it seems there is edge via a spread or fly. when shit hits the fan, i will fade via selling one future, buying the next via an exchange spread but as i pointed out previously; i'm always early. you can never know if 12 vix runs to 17, then back to 14, or in this case 12 to mid 20's, then retouch again and again mid 20's...this is what inverts the curve more and more..and i fade it more and more while holding the long vol fronts hoping their sensitivity can increase and help offset the short vol. pretty basic.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top