VIX ETFs performance on 8/25 (XIV, SVXY, VXX, ETC)

[Scataphagos]

That is a really bad idea man. Trade the charts? On XIV and VXX? Are you under the impression that supply and demand drives their price? As i960 said, you really do need to research what they are before dipping a toe in the water. I suggest you read the full prospectus on these products, as well as absorbing all the free information that's floating around on the internet about these trade account vaporizing products. Charts are completely useless here.

Like I say, haven't traded them myself. But when I look at the charts, they look "tradable" like other issues. When you trade the chart, you're making plays based upon "buying and selling". That's all that really matters. (If you don't "get that", then suggest you not bother about being a chart trader.)

BTW... charts are almost always "not useless". (I would have said "never useless", but I thought of one which is mostly useless.)

 

[newwurldmn]

From my point of view, doesn't matter "what their holdings are". Trade the charts.

You can "trade the charts." A lot of vol guys trade the charts on implied vol.

Typically these don't trade under the same processes or patterns are commodities or equities. But if you figure out that pattern, it's tradable.

Two factors to bear in mind: the level of the VIX and the term structure of the VIX. Both those are determined by the level of vol in the SPX options and the skew of the SPX options. No reason you can't plug the ETNs or those underlying factors on a chart and come up with trading signals.

 

[VTS]

Like I say, haven't traded them myself. But when I look at the charts, they look "tradable" like other issues. When you trade the chart, you're making plays based upon "buying and selling". That's all that really matters. (If you don't "get that", then suggest you not bother about being a chart trader.)

BTW... charts are almost always "not useless". (I would have said "never useless", but I thought of one which is mostly useless.)

You're missing the point. XIV and VXX DO NOT derive their price based on any price action or anything to do with themselves. What are you talking about trade the charts? Just simply saying trade the charts implies you don't know what these ETN's are. Which by the way is normal. Most people, dare I say nearly everybody, doesn't know what these things are. That's why peoples trading accounts are being imploded left and right.

It's a formula, with price action derived based on an entirely different source of data. The price of the XIV has NOTHING to do with the XIV, or charts of the XIV, or volume on the XIV, or sentiment of the XIV.

Now I will extend an olive branch here and say, if by "trade the charts" you actually meant you are going to use VIX Futures term structure and levels of contango and backwardation to indicate when to take trades, then I would say, DUH !


So if you did mean tracking the VIX futures term structure, fine, yes, that's extremely important. But I'm sorry that doesn't sound like what you meant. It seems you said you were going to use the chart of XIV to trade the XIV. Which of course is just nonsensical once you realize what XIV is.

 

[Scataphagos]

You're missing the point. XIV and VXX DO NOT derive their price based on any price action or anything to do with themselves. What are you talking about trade the charts? Just simply saying trade the charts implies you don't know what these ETN's are. Which by the way is normal. Most people, dare I say nearly everybody, doesn't know what these things are. That's why peoples trading accounts are being imploded left and right.

It's a formula, with price action derived based on an entirely different source of data. The price of the XIV has NOTHING to do with the XIV, or charts of the XIV, or volume on the XIV, or sentiment of the XIV.

Now I will extend an olive branch here and say, if by "trade the charts" you actually meant you are going to use VIX Futures term structure and levels of contango and backwardation to indicate when to take trades, then I would say, DUH !


So if you did mean tracking the VIX futures term structure, fine, yes, that's extremely important. But I'm sorry that doesn't sound like what you meant. It seems you said you were going to use the chart of XIV to trade the XIV. Which of course is just nonsensical once you realize what XIV is.

I'm not "missing your point". I don't believe what you've said is relevant.... and it certainly is not relevant to me and my philosophy/style of trading.

1. Yes, I'd trade the XIV just off of the XIV chart, just like any other security.

2. I don't care how they're "made up". I don't care about backwardation or contango. Personally, I sense you're making it much more complicated that it actually is.

3. I only care about how it (and other securities) trade.... all I need to know is the price chart.

K.I.S.S., as always.

 

[VTS]

I'm not "missing your point". I don't believe what you've said is relevant.... and it certainly is not relevant to me and my philosophy/style of trading.

1. Yes, I'd trade the XIV just off of the XIV chart, just like any other security.

2. I don't care how they're "made up". I don't care about backwardation or contango. Personally, I sense you're making it much more complicated that it actually is.

3. I only care about how it (and other securities) trade.... all I need to know is the price chart.

K.I.S.S., as always.

More complicated? I've not even begun to explain how complicated these products are. If you're finding my incredibly rudimentary explanation here complicated, I cringe to think what you'd say if I explained exactly how I've managed the returns I have on these products over the years.

Whether you believe something is relevant or not, doesn't change it's relevance. Facts are facts, whether you personally acknowledge them or not. (insert flat earth analogy here)

The XIV is not like any other security, it's chart has nothing to do with it's price, and the slope of the VIX term structure is very relevant.

 

[Scataphagos]

More complicated? I've not even begun to explain how complicated these products are. If you're finding my incredibly rudimentary explanation here complicated, I cringe to think what you'd say if I explained exactly how I've managed the returns I have on these products over the years.

Whether you believe something is relevant or not, doesn't change it's relevance. Facts are facts, whether you personally acknowledge them or not. (insert flat earth analogy here)

The XIV is not like any other security, it's chart has nothing to do with it's price, and the slope of the VIX term structure is very relevant.

I don't doubt the veracity of your belief.

Just saying XIV and VXX look to be playable from their charts alone.

 

[cdcaveman]

Vix guys like options guys say long the calendar -/+ ... Different in eneregies.... They quote by the front contract.. I trade both... I don't get into semantically arguments .. If I thought you were short vol I would just ask which contract you were short and avoid being pedantic... Nothing gained from this kind of argument

 

[VTS]

It's not an argument. It's just one person with years of experience and success with these products trying to save another person from blowing up their trading account. I'm not teaching him anything, that's not my job or my goal. I'm just trying to make him see the reality of how silly his premise is.

Let me repeat, a line chart of the weather patterns in Hong Kong are as informative of the future price movements of the XIV as a chart of the XIV is. Your statement is as silly as a person saying, recently there is an uptrend of humidity in Hong Kong, therefore clearly the price trend for XIV is up.

A flag pattern, or moving average crossover, or Fibonacci retracement, or MACD divergence has NOTHING to do with how it will trade. Literally, not figuratively, literally, nothing to do with it.

 

[i960]

It's not an argument. It's just one person with years of experience and success with these products trying to save another person from blowing up their trading account. I'm not teaching him anything, that's not my job or my goal. I'm just trying to make him see the reality of how silly his premise is.

He was talking about the other guy who was giving me shit for the notation in which I used to describe my VX spread. Some of us trade many different types of spreads and have settled on long or short leg1/leg2 meaning +leg1/-leg2 or -leg1/+leg2 respectively. IB further complicates this by trying to force back/front month notation on people, regardless of the instrument. I could care less about which is the front or back honestly, I just interpret the first leg as the thing being subtracted from.

Still in that +Nov/-Dec spread BTW.

 

[FCXoptions]

Still in that +Nov/-Dec spread BTW.

Solid trade also, your on fire between CL and VIX! I just entered -feb/+mar this morning. Expecting it to come back up a bit, but we will see what happens.