VIX can be used as bear market indicator?

T

turkeyneck

Is this true?


"What’s VIX telling us?

Larry McMillan, founder of The Option Strategist and the head of the research firm that carries his name, noted “VIX backwardation is a clear illustration of a fully fledged bear market.” Highlighting that this was the first true inversion since March ’09, McMillan added that until the VIX futures curve flattens out, things will continue to look bad and the bear market will continue."

http://news.yahoo.com/fear-index-vix-50-backwardation-confirms-fully-fledged-221041528.html
 
Quote from tradingjournals:
Tell me one practical insight you got from his writings? Just one insight. A challenge open to all, including the author if he is reading.
More...
I'll take that challenge - whats the prize?. I got solid practical insight from reading his internet wisdoms - do not read his books or reccomend his books to anyone.
 
I'm not convinced that the VIX has much use as an indicator. It always goes up *after* the market crashes, not before.
 
Better to think about this: as people get less confident, they shorten their duration. As they get their confidence back, duration lengthens.
Much better leading indicator of both downturns and rallies.
 
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