Visualising the Hershey-SCT P-V Relationship

[Rahula Gautama]

Quote from bhardy307:

Point taken. Here's a little proof that I was actively trading while we were chatting, just in case you still doubt me, given that you did express doubt. Yes, I am indeed foolish enough to be proud of trading paper rather than physical. But, I made money today.

Well done! I haven't traded today because the low volume in NQ is not propissious for my favored setups. And to make you feel better, I am underwater $20 an ounce on the physical I ordered yesterday.

 

[Rahula Gautama]

If I am reading your chart right, you held through a pretty scary dip at 9:30 ET. And you were still long at the time you snapped the chart?

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from Rahula Gautama:

Well done! I haven't traded today because the low volume in NQ is not propissious for my favored setups. And to make you feel better, I am underwater $20 an ounce on the physical I ordered yesterday.

I was long and exited at 1548.97. Pretty close to what I told Socrates earlier today. It proved a good short term exit point since gold has retreated to 1545.39. Trying to decide whether or not go long or short at this point.

I went long at exactly 9:31 at 1530.35.

 

[Rahula Gautama]

Quote from bhardy307:

I was long and exited at 1548.97. Pretty close to what I told Socrates earlier today. It proved a good short term exit point since gold has retreated to 1545.39. Trying to decide whether or not go long or short at this point.

Socrates, if he were alive, would no doubt want me to ask why your chart doesn't have EUR/USD or 6E#F up for confirmation. If I were rude, I would ask why you trade XAU instead of EUR, but I won't.

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from Rahula Gautama:

Socrates, if he were alive, would no doubt want me to ask why your chart doesn't have EUR/USD or 6E#F up for confirmation. If I were rude, I would ask why you trade XAU instead of EUR, but I won't.

Because, I am rahter new at this and believe very strongly that one should focus on one thing at a time. However, yes, I am aware of the rather strong correlation between XAU/USD and EUR/USD.

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from Rahula Gautama:

Thanks. I just pulled up a five-minute of 6E and the correlation wasn't good today. So maybe other forces are back in play. Totally concur with the one thing at a time. I have traded NQ for over ten years.

Long again at 1547.25 at 15:06. May have to hold this one for a while. I don't know if it can break through the resistance in the 1550 region which was a support until destroyed earlier this morning ( support visible in 1 hour chart).

So long as these issues in Europe persist I think this correlation will remain rather strong, but I am rather suprised by how much XAU has fallen since BWOL and I were arguing about this a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Rahula Gautama]

Quote from bhardy307:

Long again at 1547.25 at 15:06. May have to hold this one for a while. I don't know if it can break through the resistance in the 1550 region which was a support until destroyed earlier this morning ( support visible in 1 hour chart).

So long as these issues in Europe persist I think this correlation will remain rather strong, but I am rather suprised by how much XAU has fallen since BWOL and I were arguing about this a couple of weeks ago.

Euro not giving you much help. I use it sometimes in my trading. Times CT.

 

[SimpleTrades]

Quote from Rahula Gautama:

Euro not giving you much help. I use it sometimes in my trading. Times CT.

It was a rather good tool of prediction for the rise in XAU at about 12:30 EST, but since then nothing of value.

 

[Thomas Jackson]

Quote from parametrichypo:

Why not Volume ?

I think Jack has me on ignore, so I can safely reveal that I use volume as a go-no go, that is, the filter I run on volume has to be above a certain threshold to trade. But once in a trade I don't care what volume does, unless it exhausts. But I do watch volume to continue to convince myself that the so-called PV relation has no predictive power. But then again I keep looking for Santa every Christmas.

 

[Joe Doaks]

Attached is a screenshot of the final version of the PV Visualizer. The blue line is smoothed volume normalized to the current range of the day. The blue number in the right margin is the fraction filtered price is of the day's range. The red line is filtered volume normalized to the maximum volume of the day. The red number in the right margin is the fraction filtered volume is of the day's maximum volume. This scaling accomplishes two things. First, it reasonably efficiently autoscales the two functions for ease of comparison of their relative directions. Second, it shows the strength of the two functions relative to the extremes of the day. This latter is to clearly show cases where I don't give a shit about what volume is doing because it is too low to be relevant. The code takes less than 30 SLOCs of EFS. I will not disclose it for two reasons. First, it is useless, as PV is utterly unreliable. Second, it is easy enough to reverse engineer if you have half a brain and are dumb enough to waste your time on something useless. I myself am so proud of it that I intend to keep it on my screen even though it is a horrid waste of space and throughput. I designed it to be useable by a halfwit because anyone who believes in the PV relation has half a brain.