Visial USD/CAD this year
- Thread starter kalzayani
- Start date
Cdn dollar is overvalued at this point. Purchasing power parity indicates that the loonie needs to fall. Cdns are able to cross the border into the U.S. and buy goods cheaper than in Canada (even when duties are taken into account). However, as Keynes said, "markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent".
No duties on goods imported from US (unless they came into the US from a non-NAFTA country). You have to pay GST/PST coming back in, but you do anyway. On the other hand, with the price of gas being what it is, that's a disincentive, plus the time factor unless you live in Windsor or Fort Erie or someplace like that.
I no longer have any idea what's going on with USDCAD. $80 oil is pushing the loonie up, for sure, but I can't see any reason for $80 oil. Considering buying some November nickel put options on an oil stock ... sure it's a long shot, but possible that 100 contracts you paid $650 for with commission will be worth $10,000 or even $100,000 after the traditional October crash - not bad odds.
Meanwhile, with USD plunging everywhere (USDCHF at 1.1867!), USDJPY is looking overpriced at 115+. At PPP it should apparently be worth around 109, and even if it doesn't get that low, 113 in a week or so looks well within reach. I have shorted at 115.11 with stop at 115.50 and target at 113. Wake me up when USDCAD makes up its mind.
I no longer have any idea what's going on with USDCAD. $80 oil is pushing the loonie up, for sure, but I can't see any reason for $80 oil. Considering buying some November nickel put options on an oil stock ... sure it's a long shot, but possible that 100 contracts you paid $650 for with commission will be worth $10,000 or even $100,000 after the traditional October crash - not bad odds.
Meanwhile, with USD plunging everywhere (USDCHF at 1.1867!), USDJPY is looking overpriced at 115+. At PPP it should apparently be worth around 109, and even if it doesn't get that low, 113 in a week or so looks well within reach. I have shorted at 115.11 with stop at 115.50 and target at 113. Wake me up when USDCAD makes up its mind.
not sure either GS
I trying these for a while
EURUSD
Sell Buy
1.3939 1.3417
1.4051 1.3303
1.4163 1.3190
Date 11/14/2007
USDJPY
Sell Buy
116.0152 110.8133
116.9291 109.5521
117.8431 108.2908
Date 10/6/2007
GBPUSD
Sell Buy
2.0703 1.9745
2.0917 1.9535
2.1131 1.9324
USDCHF
Sell Buy
1.1956 1.1660
1.2016 1.1604
1.2076 1.1548
Date 9/25/2007
gld
Sell Buy
69.4030 62.7267
70.8690 61.2611
72.3349 59.7955
Date 11/28/2007
slv
Sell Buy
129.0257 107.3063
133.7958 102.3666
138.5659 97.4269
Date 11/28/2007
uso
Sell Buy
60.9764 52.9956
62.6683 51.3075
64.3601 49.6194
Date 10/11/2007
So let's see now. People weren't sure whether the Fed was going to drop rates by .25 or .50. They dropped them by .50
and dropped the discount rate by .50 as well. Predictably, USD
went down against everything in sight - except JPY, which zoomed to a 1-week high. USDJPY being driven by the carry
trade, which is now much less attractive than AUDJPY, NZDJPY,
GBPJPY or EURJPY, this makes sense how?
(I made a bunch yesterday playing USDJPY to drop, then a bunch more backing EURUSD, and then lost it all back playing for USDJPY to make sense. Arrrgh.)
Looks like USDCAD is going to make parity after all. I eat many words. Despite that, shorting it at 1.013 is a bit too much for my nerves.
and dropped the discount rate by .50 as well. Predictably, USD
went down against everything in sight - except JPY, which zoomed to a 1-week high. USDJPY being driven by the carry
trade, which is now much less attractive than AUDJPY, NZDJPY,
GBPJPY or EURJPY, this makes sense how?
(I made a bunch yesterday playing USDJPY to drop, then a bunch more backing EURUSD, and then lost it all back playing for USDJPY to make sense. Arrrgh.)
Looks like USDCAD is going to make parity after all. I eat many words. Despite that, shorting it at 1.013 is a bit too much for my nerves.