Visial USD/CAD this year

Could be, never looked at EUR/JPY. Unfortunately when you trade in pairs that don't involve your base currency, IB doubles your margin requirements (i.e. treats it as if you were holding positions in both EURUSD and USDJPY), which severely restricts your flexibility. I know I've done some dabbling in things like GBP/CAD, but I'm a reformed man.

USD/JPY looks to me like it's still heading south, maybe to 117.50 or 117. Then the carry trade should resume. I've set up a modest short, and if/when it gets down to those levels I'm in with all my chips, hoping to get a 700 pip ride augmented by a bit of channel trading on the way up.

USDCAD, as I suspected, went up too far too fast and is headed back to 1.04. It will stage a big rally eventually, but not until October I don't think.

EURUSD is looking awfully cheap at under 1.37, so that might be a better short-term ride than shorting USDJPY. Maybe I'll split my bets. I know you think it's heading south, but the eurozone economy is still looking strong and the US economy is still wobbling and the pundits are still calling for 1.40.
 
Going with this trends
till oct

GL

1.5 Months
Index Daily
EUR/USD Buy
USD/JPY Buy
GBP/USD Buy
USD/CHF Buy
EUR/CHF Hold
AUD/USD Buy
USD/CAD Sell
NZD/USD Buy
EUR/GBP Sell
EUR/JPY Buy
GBP/JPY Buy
CHF/JPY Buy
GBP/CHF Buy
EUR/AUD Sell
EUR/CAD Sell
AUD/CAD Sell
AUD/JPY Buy
CAD/JPY Buy
NZD/JPY Buy
GBP/AUD Sell
AUD/NZD Sell
AUD/CHF Buy
EUR/NZD Sell
USD/SGD Buy
USD/HKD Sell
 
I agree with most of that excepte USD/CAD Sell. I am staying out of USD/CAD until it gets back down to the 1.03 range, and then I'm buying for the long hold.

Right now I'm in USD/JPY at 117.98, waiting for others to reach favourable entry points. Suspect I've missed the boat with EURUSD. IB doesn't have all those pairs. It does have HKD, but I'm staying out of that because it moves like molasses, and I'm sticking to xUSD or USDx because of the IB margin problem.

What will happen in 3 months, nobody knows. I expect USDJPY to
move up in about a 150-pip channel, so I've set a trail to kick in at 119.25. I'll reverse at that point, and try to buy back in trailing from 118.50. After that, we'll see.
 
GSP
CHEKC this out bro

1.00667236 0.988583289

1.008426681 0.991235588

these are coef
with close
but two types
if USD/JPY Close below previous

Then Long Using Close*0.988583289
and Short or Close Position at same Close*1.00667236


if Close Is above previous
Then Long
at
Clsoe*0.991235588

and Short at at Close*1.008426681
 
GSP

Check on USDCAD
I think U are right
Did some on Weekly Data
I do Have uptrend on it
cycle for that is about 9*3 weeks=25 weeks say...

On daily some down trend still
9*3 days cycle
say another month....
so IMO with this conflict in Trend
---> slow down is Normal... Probably this 1.03 is AVG lowest point for a 7 Year North rallie

Good Call Bro
 
Buying Cable today

Pr(OK) High Low
90.32% 2.0560 2.0321
92.65% 2.0568 2.0315
95.05% 2.0580 2.0308
96.54% 2.0589 2.0301
97.68% 2.0599 2.0295
98.49% 2.0609 2.0288
99.04% 2.0619 2.0281
99.41% 2.0629 2.0274
99.64% 2.0639 2.0268
99.79% 2.0649 2.0261
99.88% 2.0659 2.0254
99.94% 2.0669 2.0247
 
Quote from gspaulsson:

kalz, what tools are u using?

Pr(OK) High Low
90.32% 2.0560 2.0321
92.65% 2.0568 2.0315
95.05% 2.0580 2.0308


Hi GS
for the above using conditional statistics (Just normal AVERAGE and Standard Deviation.

SOrt of stratifying the close as being Higher or Lower then the day before
will send you this file
 
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