Visial USD/CAD this year
- Thread starter kalzayani
- Start date
seems there are still sellers in the cellar
I still see USDCAD as oversold. It is where it is because of a string of strong economic figures in 1Q plus M&A encouraged by a cheap loonie. M&A has diminished (e.g. Alcoa/Alcan fell through). Canadians are sitting on a pile of loonies from selling Inco/Falconbridge/Dofasco etc., which they recently used to beat off a play for BCE and are for the time being plowing back into the Canadian market, but as soon as a definite upward trend in USDCAD starts they will be looking at all those cheap-looking US stocks. You might see a reverse play by Alcan for Alcoa.
Apart from oil now being over $70, I just can't see any more downward fundamental pressure. Oil by itself can't account for the loonie being where it is. Also keep in mind that $70 oil with USDCAD at 1.12 was bringing in $78.40/bbl in loonies whereas at 1.06 it only brings in $74.20, equivalent to US$66.25 last year, or around $64 in constant dollars. Besides which, oil is also bound to unwind sooner or later. With gas prices where they are and the high loonie, look for a subdued summer travel/tourist season.
Last figures for US economic growth were only 0.6% y/y. The housing market continues to be in trouble, import prices are high due to the low dollar and high gas prices are pushing inflation, which Bernanke hasn't got the leeway to handle. So the US looks to be heading for zero growth and/or recession real soon now. In the meantime according to the April figures, Canada is already at zero growth, and the next batch of figures are bound to look worse. Every trend contains the seeds of its own destruction.
So what can be still pushing USDCAD down, except for purely speculative pressure?
Seems to me in the short term we are at support=1.0540 ish and resistance around 1.0620, or alternatively July will see a rally similar to June's, topping out at around 1.0700. After that, we shall see.
Apart from oil now being over $70, I just can't see any more downward fundamental pressure. Oil by itself can't account for the loonie being where it is. Also keep in mind that $70 oil with USDCAD at 1.12 was bringing in $78.40/bbl in loonies whereas at 1.06 it only brings in $74.20, equivalent to US$66.25 last year, or around $64 in constant dollars. Besides which, oil is also bound to unwind sooner or later. With gas prices where they are and the high loonie, look for a subdued summer travel/tourist season.
Last figures for US economic growth were only 0.6% y/y. The housing market continues to be in trouble, import prices are high due to the low dollar and high gas prices are pushing inflation, which Bernanke hasn't got the leeway to handle. So the US looks to be heading for zero growth and/or recession real soon now. In the meantime according to the April figures, Canada is already at zero growth, and the next batch of figures are bound to look worse. Every trend contains the seeds of its own destruction.
So what can be still pushing USDCAD down, except for purely speculative pressure?
Seems to me in the short term we are at support=1.0540 ish and resistance around 1.0620, or alternatively July will see a rally similar to June's, topping out at around 1.0700. After that, we shall see.
OK for next 2 weeks
will place orders
every 12 hours
with an offset coef
coef =1.0179
any point of usd/cad ...for example
1.0555 say
order at 1 Lot ... Mini
@ =1.0555*Coef
=1.0744
12 Hours latter maybe at 1.0610 ( For example)
Order at = 1.0610*1.0179=1.0799
...so on
Leaving them as Open orders
for a week of trade time...will have 5 Days*2 orders Per day*1 lot each
=2 Lots of a regular account
Check out Your return.
will place orders
every 12 hours
with an offset coef
coef =1.0179
any point of usd/cad ...for example
1.0555 say
order at 1 Lot ... Mini
@ =1.0555*Coef
=1.0744
12 Hours latter maybe at 1.0610 ( For example)
Order at = 1.0610*1.0179=1.0799
...so on
Leaving them as Open orders
for a week of trade time...will have 5 Days*2 orders Per day*1 lot each
=2 Lots of a regular account
Check out Your return.
Here are the predictions from the geniuses at Royal Bank of
Canada and Scotiabank, together with Scotiabank's consensus
of the experts it polled. Keep in mind that this time last year they
were predicting that we'd now be at 1.20 or so.
3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
RBC 1.04 1.06 1.12
Scotia 1.04 1.05 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.03
consensus 1.11 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.11
Basically I get the picture that nobody knows what the f*** is
going on, but also nobody is expecting any drastic moves.
I have personally decided that the fishing is better in EURUSD (forecast to be heading for 1.40) and USDJPY (forecast to be
unwinding all the way down to 109, although I suspect the
carry trade will cause it to yo-yo a lot as it drops, if it drops.)
Besides, the spreads are so much better - typically half a pip
at IB. Good for a bit of scalping on days when there is no clear trend.
Canada and Scotiabank, together with Scotiabank's consensus
of the experts it polled. Keep in mind that this time last year they
were predicting that we'd now be at 1.20 or so.
3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08
RBC 1.04 1.06 1.12
Scotia 1.04 1.05 1.08 1.07 1.05 1.03
consensus 1.11 1.08 1.09 1.10 1.11 1.11
Basically I get the picture that nobody knows what the f*** is
going on, but also nobody is expecting any drastic moves.
I have personally decided that the fishing is better in EURUSD (forecast to be heading for 1.40) and USDJPY (forecast to be
unwinding all the way down to 109, although I suspect the
carry trade will cause it to yo-yo a lot as it drops, if it drops.)
Besides, the spreads are so much better - typically half a pip
at IB. Good for a bit of scalping on days when there is no clear trend.
Not these days, especially on the ECNs. IB typically has a 0.5 spread on EURUSD and sometimes for USDJPY as well. Hotspot FXi is even tighter, as low as 0.1 pip on EURUSD and often under 1 pip for everything else.