Virginia poll. Dems are sweating bigly

History has a funny way of repeating itself. At the end of the day Virginia turned out to be more cyclical than anything else. Democrats could not buck the trend and Virginia is now 1 for 12 in the Governor to presidential party ratio.

New Jersey is the shocker but not so much when you consider Murphy is on track to be the first democrat re-elected governor since 1977.

Youngkin ran a good campaign, really drove up the high school or lower crowd to 75% for women. That’s big. Also drove up rural areas.

Ciatarelli turned Monmouth and Ocean Counties into Republican power houses, and really made big inroads up in Bergen County.

My take is a lot of these democrats big margins from 2017 and 2020 showed how much Trump moved independents to democrats and gave democrats a false sense of the size of their base.

Also of interest is how accurate polling was in Virginia and how flawed in NJ. This could be because there was a lot of polling in Virginia very little NJ but that remains to be seen. I was hoping to get a clear picture on the state of polling but now it’s just as unclear as ever.
 
Long night for the radical left. Lost in Virginia and should have been a victory. Neck and neck in NJ and that should have been an EASY win, and if that turns out to be another loss it's a disaster of monumental proportions. Abolish the police in Minneapolis soundly rejected.
Unless the lunatic left does a hard 180 pivot they will be slaughtered next November, and I mean a Reagan/Mondale type slaughter. In any case, another middle finger was given to the radical left wokeism.
 
UsualName said:
My take is a lot of these democrats big margins from 2017 and 2020 showed how much Trump moved independents to democrats and gave democrats a false sense of the size of their base.
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That;s a factor but it sounds a lot like you are saying that dems lost lots of votes from just marginal dems who reverted back to pubs or independents.

That could be. Unfortunately for them though, the problem is much worse than that. Lots of traditional dems are very unhappy with dems these days and have had to see some truly atrocious stuff going on in Camp Biden which does not help the local races.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
I know that next time a lot of dems will probably be giving Marianne Williamson a second look.

She is definitely more equipped to handle national and world affairs than Sleepy Joe is.

Marianne-8.jpeg
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Got in late last night and actually caught the tail end of this stuff.
That guy that won VA, I can certainly see how he won. He has a certain charisma about him. That's the first time I had ever seen him. His victory speech though, he's a hell of a speaker. He wasn't using the prompters. His voice needs polished, I don't think it was just because it was worn out from the trail. If he had better voice, he'd be scary because his ability to speak is incredible. Seemed likeable, he'll be moving on up in the party in the years to come I bet.

Know what is kind of unsettling though? His Lt. Governor, I watched her victory speech too. Fox covered it, but MSNBC made no mention of her at all, let alone go to her address from the podium. Now here you have a black woman, born in Jamaica, came to NY when she was 6, grew up in the Bronx, joined the Marines, has a Master's (not sure where)... I mean this is the quintessential thing America is about right? And not one peep out of MSNBC. That's bs.

Here's a question. (I have more Tree, but I'll get to them later) ... Are folks of Asian decent now considered "people of color"? That's what they were calling that lady that won Boston. She looked Asian to me. Last name was Wu I think. I thought that term was reserved for "brown" people. God I hate even saying that. If the media would shut the f up and let people be people, pretty sure we'd have less division. They're probably too stupid to realize this. I don't know if its deliberate or not, but its a page right out of Goebels playbook if you think about it.

Oh well.
Market seems unimpressed. Time to move on and let them sensationalize the Fed meeting today. :rolleyes:
*don't buy the dip yet.
 
TreeFrogTrader said:
That;s a factor but it sounds a lot like you are saying that dems lost lots of votes from just marginal dems who reverted back to pubs or independents.

That could be. Unfortunately for them though, the problem is much worse than that. Lots of traditional dems are very unhappy with dems these days and have had to see some truly atrocious stuff going on in Camp Biden which does not help the local races.
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McAllife got 1.5 million votes, maybe even 1.6. Northam got 1.4 and won by +8. It actually was not a bad showing by Dems.

Biden is not helpful right now and most likely will be stuck in the low to mid 40s approval from here on out. Dems are definitely facing headwinds going into the midterms.

I think the question here is what we all know is the elephant in the room, Trump. The Republicans suffered big loses with Trump in office and on the ballot. How will that work out going forward considering Youngkin left Trump on mute and pulled a big victory down through the ballot.

And no I’m not ignoring democrats but they are facing bad times and how the republicans align themselves will be impactful than how the democrats run, in my opinion.

Democrats are talking a lot about needing to pass Biden’s agenda for the midterm elections but that won’t help them. They need to start thinking about how much they can get done before they are out of power.

For interest, if you scroll down in the link below you can get to NBCs exit polling in Virginia:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2021-elections/virginia-governor-results?icid=election_nav

And I’m not ignoring NJ, they didn’t even bother to do exit polls for NJ.
 
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GOP were more motivated voters and proved Dems just are so tone deaf in elections at times. Education was the big issue and terry fucked it up and Youngkin jumped all over it. Any Dems who are shocked need to resign. Waiting for CNN to get to that point instead of focusing on Biden.
 
Joe thinks he is Roosevelt and has a mandate (with a 50/50 Senate and barely a majority of the popular vote) to spend trillions of dollars, only he doesn't.

If Joe stops trying to force "transformative change" on a country that hasn't mandated it then possibly he will survive his 4 years without getting impeached. Otherwise he isn't going to finish his term.
 
Snarkhund said:
Joe thinks he is Roosevelt and has a mandate (with a 50/50 Senate and barely a majority of the popular vote) to spend trillions of dollars, only he doesn't.

If Joe stops trying to force "transformative change" on a country that hasn't mandated it then possibly he will survive his 4 years without getting impeached. Otherwise he isn't going to finish his term.
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Absurd take. This country needs transformative change in many areas. If you haven’t noticed Millennials, Gen Z and below are not doing well financially. Their financial well-being is imperative to the country’s future. We must make investments to get the generations behind us on better footing. Everything from housing to childcare needs to be addressed or this country will decline in strength.

Democrats should do what they were elected to do in 2020.
 
UsualName said:
McAllife got 1.5 million votes, maybe even 1.6. Northam got 1.4 and won by +8. It actually was not a bad showing by Dems.

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Yeh, I dunno.

A business as usual turnout for an election where they had full knowledge that they were into toss-up territory is "not a bad showing" if you want to lose.
 
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