It will be close as recnet polls suggest but Northern Virginia is where like 30% of the population is and it is predominately blue. The other clusters are Richmond and near the navy base down in Hampton Roads and they are all Blue.
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When you get to Richmond and go south east and west it is nothing but mountains, farms and open land and very little people. They are of course red.
So the question is how much ground can Youngkin pick up in those 3 zones that carry the election for the state every year.
The presidential race was separated by 500,000 votes which is really big. Youngkin will be able to close a gap like that (less people vote in those in between elections) quite a bit but I dont think VA is ready to flip just yet.
Looking at the issues Youngkin does not have the same things like CA or NY to hammer home and switch voters. COVID has been handled pretty well by the localities ( not giving credit to the politicians) and is not the main theme of the campaigns, it is education - teachers and curriculum. Every ad is focused only on that but not every voter has kids in school so it depends on who votes.
VA has numerous public schools highly rated in national rankings so Youngkin is fighting an uphill battle using dog whistles to get people riled up. VA does not have state wide liberal issues that a GOP can use to switch voters so despite McAuliffs flaws, Youngkin has to take advantage of Dems poll numbers tanking.
That being said, Biden's poor polling numbers can sway the independents and GOP is more motivated in this election than the Dems. I think straight demographics give edge to Terry but Youngkin can make it the closest GOV race in quite some time.
