Victor Niederhoffer's Matador Fund is down 12% in 2006

riskarb · Jul 23, 2006

Quote from syswizard:

or has he learned his lesson and converted to credit spreads ?

In reality, there is little difference.

marketsurfer · Jul 23, 2006

Quote from syswizard:

Surf - the above implies that YOU KNOW what the PLAN entails ? One of the issues that has surfaced is whether or not VN has been doing naked put selling again, or has he learned his lesson and converted to credit spreads ?

thanks for the question. obviously, i can't disclose anything of this nature.

sorry,

surf

riskarb · Jul 23, 2006

Dec puts... from 4 to 20. Do the math.

marketsurfer · Jul 23, 2006

Quote from steve46:

.

Basically its over.

Steve

i totally disagree with you on most aspects concerning VN and you are wrong regarding "pinky". i ask that you wait to year end to see what happens. i assure you, you will be scrambling to tell us why he will not make it next year(2007) and eating the above words in a tasty fashion. however, i do like the term "surf revolt". thanks!!

steve46 · Jul 23, 2006

I realize that its not going to make a lot of sense to the crowd, but shocks to the system tend to cluster. That means that there is always a significant possibility that a social, political or environmental "shock" will hit during market hours causing IV to explode.

If Neiderhoofer is short Vega, the only thing between him and the sidewalk is how quickly the lucky few can get a bid to cash out.

Personally, my own rule set says, when you have windfall profits, take them. I will bet there are a few others who view it the same way.

marketsurfer · Jul 23, 2006

Quote from steve46:

I realize that its not going to make a lot of sense to the crowd, but shocks to the system tend to cluster. That means that there is always a significant possibility that a social, political or environmental "shock" will hit during market hours causing IV to explode.

If Neiderhoofer is short Vega, the only thing between him and the sidewalk is how quickly the lucky few can get a bid to cash out.

Personally, my own rule set says, when you have windfall profits, take them. I will bet there are a few others who view it the same way.

yes, i tend to agree with you on the first sentence. however, these "shocks" do not necessarily cluster in the same magnitude or produce similar market directional effect. i do not believe you are correct regarding clustering shocks ( even in the same direction/magnitude ) and their effect on volatility. look at the dropping of volatility with each subsequent terror attack as an example.

keep in mind, you are making assumptions that he is trading how you think he is trading...........

surf

steve46 · Jul 23, 2006

You know if one "waits" long enough even Neiderflapper can get lucky and turn out to be "right"

The question isn't whether he is eventually going to be "vindicated", but whether the folks whose money he is holding on to, will wait that long or take it out of his hands.

I can wait, but ITS NOT UP TO ME..and its amazing that you don't get it. I won't be the one to decide, his fund investors will, and if events overtake him, well then even the most patient of investors, will say, lets take back whatever is left and go out to dinner

Then my friends, its over for poor Veeektor Neiderflocker.

straddler · Jul 24, 2006

Looks like the market bailed ol' VN out a little today.

roctrend · Jul 24, 2006

The last VN post in ET in June marked a S-T bottom too I think. Does this rally have legs ? Iam sure he is counting to see if this one has legs this time....or not. Damn that guy Vic turn down any interviews or pictures? Geez what an attention Whore? He loves the attention like an addict loves his Crack!!!