Earlier you said you were short 17 lost at an average price of 1.1397. How is it possible you went short 6 more, and now have an average price of 1.1424? You would have had to short the other 6 at 1.1500?! I don't follow FX but the futures didn't even get near that. Are you telling me you've got your numbers right -- that @1.1424 you're break even? Don't sound right to me.
victor is averaging
- Thread starter victorsafta
- Start date
I have not closed anything, this is the point ...
I'm sticking to my position and averaging. All I came up with was some hedging ...
I might have identified a problem with my system.
I don't know if you read my earlier posts ... as a matter fact I can not recall if it was on this forum or moneytec ....
Anyway when I started to trade forex it was with a 100.000 usd account .... in the months to come I came to manage a much, much bigger account than the previous one.
My gains were excelent and WAY to easy due to averaging ... I think I might have developed a system witch is unapropriate for a 50k acc.
I was never hit so hard ... I thought forex was an endless profit taking, and I can tell you it REALLY IS when you have considerable capital.
I will reconsider my averaging parameters and simulate on historical data adjusting to the 50k account type.
I'm not very fluent in thinking now ... I am way to tired and asleep ...
As I said I have a rough day tomorow ... I signed an IB agreement today, I have to settle some issues with the national bank tom. so I will stop posting for tonight ... it's 12.26am here ... i need some sleep ...
Nighty night guys
I'm sticking to my position and averaging. All I came up with was some hedging ...
I might have identified a problem with my system.
I don't know if you read my earlier posts ... as a matter fact I can not recall if it was on this forum or moneytec ....
Anyway when I started to trade forex it was with a 100.000 usd account .... in the months to come I came to manage a much, much bigger account than the previous one.
My gains were excelent and WAY to easy due to averaging ... I think I might have developed a system witch is unapropriate for a 50k acc.
I was never hit so hard ... I thought forex was an endless profit taking, and I can tell you it REALLY IS when you have considerable capital.
I will reconsider my averaging parameters and simulate on historical data adjusting to the 50k account type.
I'm not very fluent in thinking now ... I am way to tired and asleep ...
As I said I have a rough day tomorow ... I signed an IB agreement today, I have to settle some issues with the national bank tom. so I will stop posting for tonight ... it's 12.26am here ... i need some sleep ...
Nighty night guys
I don't quite get it, chaos .... what do you mean?
Duey .... I'll post my statement at this point ... you judge for yourself .... let's pretend for a moment I'm not into bad jokes here ... ok?
Quote from rezo_s:
Victor, so what happened to your client with much bigger acc than 100k. You started a sory, so let us here it to the end, please. Its not polite not to finish the story
best
Take a look at my earlier post about Hedley, you'll figer it out what happened with my client.... he managed to get some funds out anyway, others couldn't ...
As for my client, he was my employer also .... if you get THAT curious and interested in my politeness ... I will provide you with detailed info on my client and his activities also ...
Regards, Rezo ... be a good boy...
Oh, by the way, I find most of you have a way with beeing suspicios about all kinds of stuff begining with one's bio, honesty and enjoy pointing fingers ....
Is this part of beeing a trader???
Teach me ...
As for what I said earlier, I don't see any constructive approach from most of you guys .... enjoying my position ... go away ... watch ... but don't try beeing smart asses .... no one in the market is ...
Have all the best ... I'll consider posting again soon .... hope it's worth it.....
Victor,
I hope this current trade works out for you. The market could easily retract tomorrow, letting you out of the trade at flat.
But I would like to point out you are essentially trading a high success/low profit system. Averaging down will get you many winning trades but all it takes is that one trade where there is no retraction and you are stuck at the wrong end of a major price movement and you are wiped out.
With your method you could easily have a win ratio of 95%, with say an average gain of $1000. But in that last 5%, your loss would be $30,000 since you don't really have a stop system in place.
I suspect your true "stop level" is the point at which the losses become so heavy you can't take it any more and you end up getting out. And only you can know where that level is.
I'm not saying you should never average down. But at the very least incorporate some risk management into your system to avoid days like today.
I hope this current trade works out for you. The market could easily retract tomorrow, letting you out of the trade at flat.
But I would like to point out you are essentially trading a high success/low profit system. Averaging down will get you many winning trades but all it takes is that one trade where there is no retraction and you are stuck at the wrong end of a major price movement and you are wiped out.
With your method you could easily have a win ratio of 95%, with say an average gain of $1000. But in that last 5%, your loss would be $30,000 since you don't really have a stop system in place.
I suspect your true "stop level" is the point at which the losses become so heavy you can't take it any more and you end up getting out. And only you can know where that level is.
I'm not saying you should never average down. But at the very least incorporate some risk management into your system to avoid days like today.
what i mean is your strategy sounds incredibly risky. take a look at some of the trends that occur in currencies. some go on for months and months as the currency rises of falls several hundred pips. I would never risk getting caught on the wrong side of one of those moves - trading w/out stops and getting in deeper and deeper as price moves against me.
sure, sometimes price just fluxuates in a channel for months as well. but it always breaks out if you give it enough time.
Have you read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb. shit will happen eventually.
thinking of your trading style and your statement that "It's my way or the highway," it just seems to me you may be lacking two of the important characteristics that traders need. A) a fundamental understanding or risk and B) humility
if i'm wrong about this, i stand corrected. you're the only one who can answer that. but doesn't it tell you something when the pro traders here are saying things like you're a "blow up" waiting to happen.
all this said, i wish you nothing but the best, victor. good luck in your trading.
chaos
sure, sometimes price just fluxuates in a channel for months as well. but it always breaks out if you give it enough time.
Have you read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb. shit will happen eventually.
thinking of your trading style and your statement that "It's my way or the highway," it just seems to me you may be lacking two of the important characteristics that traders need. A) a fundamental understanding or risk and B) humility
if i'm wrong about this, i stand corrected. you're the only one who can answer that. but doesn't it tell you something when the pro traders here are saying things like you're a "blow up" waiting to happen.
all this said, i wish you nothing but the best, victor. good luck in your trading.
chaos