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VERY bad feeling II
- Thread starter YMsystemtrader
- Start date
Oh SHIT!
Just woke up after 4 hours. Bad feelings still.
PPT team is not stepping in today.
S&P 500 Dec '07
1506.20
-18.80 1524.60 1524.60 1504.80 3205 576462 CME 11/07/07 09:45:19
Just woke up after 4 hours. Bad feelings still.
PPT team is not stepping in today.
S&P 500 Dec '07
1506.20
-18.80 1524.60 1524.60 1504.80 3205 576462 CME 11/07/07 09:45:19
Hey YM on your initial feeling if you had only locked that play away. This is something I run into myself just playing the QID or some simpleton market short idea >> it starts as a HEDGE on long positions and smartly so. And it ends in disgrace & greed as I cover a small daily gain. Then it all makes sense days later.
Anyway you don't go on ET with feelings and hunches unless you have a huge track record like myself. And even I try not to do it. People would rather the substance of fact and as for inklings, urges and gut feelings- the ET faithful prefer a weathered guy who has been in the market for many, many years and seen everything.
Anyway the play today could be the DUG a 2 X oil and gas short, the oil trade is so crowded right now and the oil service names ripe for selling anyway to make up for other losses> I just may take the opposite side of that trade and hope for an inventory build. That's risky though. Upside for oil I feel is $108 which would lose you $2 to $3 on the DUG and if we get lucky on the EIA report downside for oil is $75. The DUG would go from $38 to $50!
Another idea on the longside is to get a shortlist together of Financial ideas that have very little debt risk-- Blackrock I'm looking at today and I already bought Western Union. This kind of proactive thinking is how you protect and build portfolios. ~ stoney
Anyway you don't go on ET with feelings and hunches unless you have a huge track record like myself. And even I try not to do it. People would rather the substance of fact and as for inklings, urges and gut feelings- the ET faithful prefer a weathered guy who has been in the market for many, many years and seen everything.
Anyway the play today could be the DUG a 2 X oil and gas short, the oil trade is so crowded right now and the oil service names ripe for selling anyway to make up for other losses> I just may take the opposite side of that trade and hope for an inventory build. That's risky though. Upside for oil I feel is $108 which would lose you $2 to $3 on the DUG and if we get lucky on the EIA report downside for oil is $75. The DUG would go from $38 to $50!
Another idea on the longside is to get a shortlist together of Financial ideas that have very little debt risk-- Blackrock I'm looking at today and I already bought Western Union. This kind of proactive thinking is how you protect and build portfolios. ~ stoney
Excuse me, what exactly can't go on forever? We've been in a sideways range in the SP500 since May 2007. Why are you so sure we will breakout to the downside. Who says we can't break out to the upside, even if it looks impossible right now.Quote from S2007S:
This is an irrational market, it cant go on like this forever, everyone does know that there is a breaking point, but where the breaking point is, is anyones guess. I would not be surprised to see the US markets drop 5% in a day maybe even 7 or 8%.....the bear has to show up to wall street eventually, it cant be bullish forever.
Quote from EMRGLOBAL:
911 was a learning experience trading such a crises.
This one is going to be even a bigger learning experience.
Catching tops is a fools game.
Let it break.
The moves are bigger in the second phase than the first drop. This market is not going to crash the way you peope think. 7% down day is not going to happen.
When the Bear is realized, it will be around for a decade.
Plenty of time to make money on the short side.
What you see now is a move to weaken the US. A transition away from the dollar is the call and the dollar will NOT COME BACK IN OUR LIFETIME! It is over, finished for the dollar and will not rebound but float at these lower levels for at least a decade.
Oil, going higher than 100 by Xmas. Gas prices are not lagging and will finally come to par with oil movements.
Consumer is dying but does not yet know it. When they wake up, panic & fear will strike then and spending will hault.
Global Markets will not "Follow" the US markets nor will their economies. M&A activity is on the rise in Euro land and Asia and funding of venture projects is massive.
American funding of new business is halted, Feds cheap money is going toward the life line of the 4 Major banks. lending has halted across the board in the US.
Bank Faliuers are coming but will not be televised. It will not be like 1929. The banks will disapear via M&A activity guided by the Feds. Thus the failuers will be masked behind "Consolidations".
This is going to be one exciting decade for those who play the global markets and who participate in M&A activity world wide.
GAME ON
people will only come to realize this after 5 years