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[cesfx]

your fly is quoted at 2.96! Nice day today!

I closed it for about 60% roi and took a march bull call 25-35 as this all crypto thing is on fire...

"The implied volatility of an option is usually compared against historical volatility to see if it is cheap or not. However, while there is only one implied volatility, there are many different measures of historical volatility."

This quote above... only one implied vol? I don't think so... Maybe the author means theres only "one way" of measuring implied vol? Because every security I look at has NUMEROUS implied volatility numbers.

On thinkorswim, pick a ticker and scroll down to "Todays Option Statistics"

They give you the implied volatility for the ticker... but then you have implied volatility figure in each expiration, and even each strike. So my question to anyone reading this, is what implied volatility number do you look at (or which one matters most?). I'm assuming its the plain IV number of the overall underlying mentioned above?

Normally when I scan for volatility on tws, I use IV vs Historical volatility. Then volatility skew comparison can help me visualize some opportunity on different strikes and dte. I am beginner in reading skew but if something is very unusual it stands out, as it does on the option chain sometime.
Tos also has a spread option scanner which is useful to pick a few names with activity.

 

[tradeking007yahoo]

good stuff have you looked at deep in the money call spreads and deep in the money put spreads

 

[.sigma]

 

[cesfx]

View attachment 248466

In Italian "volatile" also means bird.

Here is the original:

 

[.sigma]

In Italian "volatile" also means bird.

Here is the original:

Interesting. So the etymology of volatile is volare, which originally meant “a creature that flies”... and now in today’s volatile markets we call strategic option plays “wing spreads” or iron condors or butterflies etc... If someone thinks these terms are completely random are in for a surprise.

 

[.sigma]

Week 1 of 2021 was an interesting one... for some reason, as time permits.. it "SEEMS" as if time is convex. It feels like its moving faster ever more so.. and Taleb warned us about the regularity of tail events. Every other week we see +3 st.dev events. Its a bizarre time right now.

$SPY $381.26 (+7.38[1.97%])

Down: 1 (Mon)
Up: 4 (Tues, Wed, Thur, Fri)
Range: 16.67
Note: Highest amount of volume since week of November 9

Trump is on his way to close the prezzy door with the greatest bull market we've seen since the tech boom and dare I say the roaring 20's? Politics yet again provides the American publc with its weekly (daily) dose of propagation, this week one of the most bizarre yet. Seemed "staged" to me, in a way. Compartmentalized. Central Intelligence arent dummies, they know wtf they are doing. Anyway I'm not one to talk nonsensical political noise, but this week was just too matrix-like. S&P priced in this fugazi cou detat. Stupid traders never understand how the markets go up on what seems to be bad news. The market isn't an emotional b!tch like you, in fact its stoic by nature. The market loves certainty, whether good or bad. Uncertainty is what causes selling climax'es.

Markets crash up. I've read in soooo many books and literature about trading "price takes the stairs up, elevator down"... sure buddy, price is taking the stairs up but they don't mention its running up the stairs. This applies to index's, single stocks crash up elevator style. Look at $DDD

What on gods green earth is this? ^^^

Anyway. Markets crashing up is the CAUSE for markets crashing down. How funny is that? When you really think about it. When you go back and study past price charts and study the crashes (29', 37', 74', 87', 00', 09', 20') all of these massive "transfer-risk-from-dumb$-to-smart$" selling climaxes occured because of the massive RUN UP in price prior. It boggles my mind. People don't even realize this. So when I see the market run up even more this week, it gets me prepared for an ever more-likely sharp pull-back.. eventually a high-velocity-volatile one we traded almost a year ago now when covid was introduced to our sick-society. Heres my Spyder analyziz for Week 2.

next post..........

 

[.sigma]

Market doesn’t know you exist. And your interpretation of the reality around you is probably false. But that’s okay, we are all on this journey, keep analyzing.

it seems the top of the rising wedge was glazed last week. IMO, the way I interpret the reality around me, a correction/consolidation is much needed. The farther spot drifts from equilibrium the higher the chance of a sharp crash. Since the market was down last week, I’m predicting it’ll be up tomorrow, then the rest of the week will be a consolidation/correction movement. We shall see!

 

[.sigma]

Currently still in all my stock positions. Adding AMC and BXRX to that list.

Update on my ZM fly. Quoted at $2.75 on Sunday night.

Well, ZM price action this week confirmed why I chose the 15 JAN 21 expiration instead of the weekly. $360 is the area i kept my eye on, thus being the choice for my lower strike for the OTM fly. $360 was hit then consolidated below. Price is still above the low ($336.10). Hoping for a push to 370 by Thursday.

To get an idea of what I’m gunning for, take a look at this chart from Best Buy. The mark up on Thursday/Friday from 100 to 109 is similar to ZM from 340 to 370/80.

 

[.sigma]

Eyeing the TLT 15 JAN 21 150/53/56 natural for $1.04

 

[.sigma]

Long $BEST