Verisimilitude Fund

Well, today I missed 2 runups. Since the idea is to be in the market all the time or at last when it is more likely to go up then down, it is generally easier than trying to play it both way. Remember, I only have to outperform the SPX, I don't necessery have to finish in the green, although I plan to do so.

I don't really want to go into details, because I use this and that, but today after 14:30 I was pretty sure of a pullback (I was flat at that time) because we had a giant RSI divergence on the 15 mins chart and on the longer term chart we reached the edge of the double bottom, which is a deciding zone (could go both way). Right now we have a head and shoulder formation, so I am going to wait until tomorrow to decide if I want to be long or not...

My bet is down, but we shall see....
 
Thanks, although I am not statisfied with myself. The idea is to be in the market most of the time, and I haven't stuck to the rules all the time so far. As a result I missed a couple of bigger runups.

The real deal is going to come when I successfully short the market, because it counts as double against the SPX. Basicly with the original strategy, if I can catch twice a 10-10 pts drop being in short, I don't have to do anything for the rest of the year, just be long and the goal of outperforming the SPX is achieved....

Actually, even catching short a 10 pts drop would make up for the timepremium, because that is about 18 ES points for 6 months. How difficult can that be??? :)
 
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