Very short term drops in stks ( Feb , March ) can happen but since 2009 regular bear mkts can not happen on a nominal basis .Look no further than the Venezuelan stk mkt up 7 times this yr as people starve in the street and hospitals are dark with no electricity or supply’s .Nothing wrong with shorting indexes but it’s measured in hours and days .
Venezuela Stk mkt shows true bear mkts in nominal terms impossible
- Thread starter SammyJ
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What indexes are you referring to?
It can happen on a nominal basis, just look at the Dow bear of 1929-1932. And from 1965 to 1982 it was pretty much dead money (sideways).
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart
And here it is inflation adjusted - not very nice looking:
Your talking 40 yrs ago . The fed has developed new techniques in the last 10 plus yrs to prevent a long lasting nominal bear mkt . Sure we can get 1-3 months down but it’s quickly reversed as money is printed to the heavens .Again I’m talking asset prices and not the real economy . Till the fed is punished with $7 milk and $5 k a month rent and mass real poverty they won’t stop printing . It’s risk free for now .
Mostly agree. If proper (more than a couple of %/year) inflation hits they will stop printing though. However, as long as money doesn't get into circulation they can add as much paper wealth to the world's richest as they want.
Your remark is MMT(modern marked theory) which is unproven and believed by many to be complete nonsense.
Ok, let me know about your _proven_ economics theories.
As far as I'm concerned, mainstream policy response failed to reach target inflation for over a decade now.
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100% agree . Wether Elon musk is worth $10 bi or $200 bil is irrelevant. It’s paper wealth he’ll never spend . But if you give $1000 a week to the poorest 50 mil they’ll spend ever cent and inflation will go wild
So basically Manhattan pre covid
True inflations numbers are under reported.