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Vega hopful...
- Thread starter toomanyloses
- Start date
By setting this calendar up so far out of the money it already has a directional bias. If you're neutral on it or bullish SPY now why not buy in your Jan and just sell a put above your long put leaving you with a credit spread with a neutral bull bias. Then you'll benefit form theta. Are you still seeing SPY at 350 come April or were you just trying to play volatility?Thanks...but that's the issue...your solution depends on a significant directional bias...which if I had one, I'd probably do something else..?
Totally agree...but the play is a hope for a vega pop which has max impact with long dated positions. Thinking more than 3 months is just ridiculous, haha but then again, believing the market could actually drop....that's another story(but it's mine). Again...hedging concepts, which may be impossible...is the goal.
Not bad to have a hedge concept I think this set up wasn't ideal. Maybe doing a long winged 60 DTE fly in the vxx calls instead. Cheaper with good potential as long as it isn't a black swan correction you're hedging against. Which in that case we're all pretty much fucked anyway except Taleb.Totally agree...but the play is a hope for a vega pop which has max impact with long dated positions. Thinking more than 3 months is just ridiculous, haha but then again, believing the market could actually drop....that's another story(but it's mine). Again...hedging concepts, which may be impossible...is the goal.
You nailed it with the volatility! Not sure how much longer the bulls have and wanted to be in a position that could last another month or more if needed without bleeding too much. Trading in my shorts for something closer to 380 makes sense and likely won't hurt too much as I really don't expect a giant move...just wanted to maximize returns and in the meantime not bleed too much. lolBy setting this calendar up so far out of the money it already has a directional bias. If you're neutral on it or bullish SPY now why not buy in your Jan and just sell a put above your long put leaving you with a credit spread with a neutral bull bias. Then you'll benefit form theta. Are you still seeing SPY at 350 come April or were you just trying to play volatility?
Yeah - huge fan of VXX, play SPY ATM call spreads against VXX decay. Works sometimes, but helps if you can bounce out of VXX during mini spikes. I leave the door open with long VXX for the swans (black ones). Helps offset all my other mistakes.Not bad to have a hedge concept I think this set up wasn't ideal. Maybe doing a long winged 60 DTE fly in the vxx calls instead. Cheaper with good potential as long as it isn't a black swan correction you're hedging against. Which in that case we're all pretty much fucked anyway except Taleb.
Yeah - huge fan of VXX, play SPY ATM call spreads against VXX decay. .
What's your set up for this? This intrigues me.
and dude pick a new screen name like - "Winners deferred" toomanyloses is depressing. You got this.What's your set up for this? This intrigues me.
Faith is always the answer I guess but generally you need to believe that VIX is near a runrate low...which given the last month or two it reached today. That opens the door to a lowish VXX, and where-ever the around the money call spread currently is(tight so the extrinsic lets you roll as needed), which was around 380 today. I also sell some out of the money calls on my VXX...not all, to help cover some decay. It's generally break even other than the pops where it makes some money. Of course some good luck never hurts in the timing....ok that said, could still use some help on my OTM put calendar...I know it's out there but I haven't figured out an interesting solution! Thanks all!
Thanks Caroy - struggled with the name...took more time making that one up than any of these responses...lol. Just that it's my losses that made me...some huge ones over the years. And they still happen...I don't even want to talk about yesterday...did a thing without testing it and wow! Measurable percentage pointSS decline in assets. I almost called it the right amount of loses but I continue to learn and the market continues to change. Always a challenge.and dude pick a new screen name like - "Winners deferred" toomanyloses is depressing. You got this.