Quote from ikkyu:
Greetings everyone,
Long time lurker with his first post...
I am front testing (i.e. paper/simulated trading) a very simple system that is based primarily on volatility for setups, position sizing, and so forth. Right now I am working with mostly the ER2 and the EUR/JPN.
I am a big fan of Dr. Van Tharp, but I have seen a paradox in his book "trade your way to financial freedom." He interviews Tom Basso and he states that he wants to enter the market as near the reversal as possible to gain the highest risk-reward ratio possible.
However, Tharp himself states says that the market must confirm the move before you enter. He often recommends a volatility breakout as confirmation.
For example, last thursday I got an relative extreme volatility reading that suggested a reversal in ER2. Price was right at the bottom of a channel. The 80% ATR volatility breakout came the next day. However, using this as an entry signal (in an overall low price vol. environment) the move seemed to be almost half over upon entry. If I had used the volatility extreme as an entry instead of a setup, the trade could have made almost 100% in five days.
It would take nerves of steel to enter before confirmation, but like Basso states, that is really the ideal entry point.
Any thoughts on this situation? Is this a fundamental difference between short term trend following and high probability speculations?
The same problem seems to exist in Connors's VIX reversals.
Kind regards from England,
john (ikkyu)