Van K. Tharp's Random Entry System

harrytrader:

people play lottery with a negative expectancy system.
I trade markets with a "proven" in realtime positive expectancy system that is update everytime you close out a trade, year in, year out. I know the difference between a losingstreak which is normal or a loosingstreak due to failure of the system.

Besides that, big R multiples has nothing to do with a limit in probability law.

And in the 15 years I trade my systems I have been very conservative about a +35 R gain....

I have examples of buying a stock at 45 with a 1 piont stop that goes up to 120, split 2:1, goes backup to 160 and split(2:1) again, to get stop out at 85$. How much gain is that??? More than 35 times your losses... That is + 210R
I bought my first Mercedes with a irrealistic gain...:D
 
Quote from danielc1:

Come on, you guys!!!
If al that is stated here is true, how am I making money??????
I trade systems with a win/loss of 35%.
I do use moneymanagement between 0.3% of equity for daytrading systems and 1% for the longterm.
I add to winningpositions....
I get losingstreaks of 25 and more.(Yes, if you trade one system on one market, you can have drawdowns of 30% and more, but if you comb. your systems you will be pleasantly surprised).

I have include it a random generated excel sheet(this is not a random system!!!), do demonstrated that you can come ahead with a 35% win/loss ratio as long as you winners are much bigger than you're losers.
-1 = -1R = 1 risk loss
+5 = +5R = 5 times your risk that you gain.
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wow, and you actually submitted yourself and your trading record to this kind of statistical analysis....

its a wonder that you can trade or pull the trigger, wondering if you'll mess up that fabulous win/loss ratio with yet again another loss or win.

get real, all those percentages are used to sell one's investing methodolgy to customers and clients not to other traders....no one cares what your ratios are.....

share your experiences, whether on the win or loss side, and we can gain from that.....

Quote from SYBOCK ..........(Spok's half-brother in his quest for Sha-kar-'eee)
 
Quote from limitdown:



wow, and you actually submitted yourself and your trading record to this kind of statistical analysis....

its a wonder that you can trade or pull the trigger, wondering if you'll mess up that fabulous win/loss ratio with yet again another loss or win.

get real, all those percentages are used to sell one's investing methodolgy to customers and clients not to other traders....no one cares what your ratios are.....

share your experiences, whether on the win or loss side, and we can gain from that.....

Quote from SYBOCK ..........(Spok's half-brother in his quest for Sha-kar-'eee)
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If you trade and make money, good for you, but looking at you're answer I doubt that you will ever make a lot of money in trading...

dbphoenix:

Everybody has gone of the subject of randomentrytrading.... except you.:)
 
Quote from danielc1:


dbphoenix:

Everybody has gone of the subject of randomentrytrading.... except you.
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So what do you think is the subject of the thread now and what exactly is the point you're trying to make?
 
Quote from dbphoenix:


If the sum total of your trades is zero, what's the point in trading?
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I don't see how this is related to our little bone of contention that I summarized in my first post in this thread. Ditto to your first reply. A simple quote from Magee, which would have finally put this matter to rest, has been conspicuous by its absence.
 
Quote from Mr Subliminal:

I don't see how this is related to our little bone of contention that I summarized in my first post in this thread. Ditto to your first reply. A simple quote from Magee, which would have finally put this matter to rest, has been conspicuous by its absence.
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I don't see how it's related either. But since it was your comment, I was hoping you'd explain how it applies.

As for a "simple quote" from Magee, he devotes considerably more than a line or two to this subject. You'd learn a lot more by reading The General Semantics of Wall Street.
 
I've designed system with 40-50% win/loss ratio. But it ended up being NET NEGATIVE WAY WAY more than the 25-30% trend following. haha

i guess it says something... have to think more..
 
Quote from olintner:



Hi Stock_Lover,

thanks for the input. My experience is that patterns, which have a fairly good level of predictability on daily prices degrade very fast to 50:50 when applied intra-day. Adding comissions, you are eaten alive.

Could you be so kind a give us and idea of what a great system does differently in smaller timeframes.

Cheers, Oliver
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I'd rather not give away any edge by explaining any system that's short term. The more who play the less it pays.

Most of the systems being talked about that have less than a 50% probablility are much longer term than intraday. They are usually for position traders as was the examples given in one of Dr. Tharp's newletters about this subject.
 
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