Val's Discretionary Trading Journal

Hi Felix, I've been in cash for a month or so, seemed like a range market in equities, with only few super cash rich companies pulling indexes slightly up. Not a great environment for my discretionary trading, so collecting safe interest, waiting for conditions to change. Intuitively I don't see much upside in equities till credit markets get better, then you have seasonality effect coming into summer. We shall see by fall, keeping my eyes on rates and defaults. Meanwhile I'm focusing on other stuff, including acquisitions, some private equity work and expanding quantitative side of things.

How you've been doing?
 
ValeryN said:
Right, shorting is a bear market is not a sure way to make $. There is opportunity cost related to shorting the wrong stuff, namely exhibiting high relative strength to the market. Conditions make it unlikely to lose a bunch unless the entry is entirely random and then stuck to a large unrealized loss. Might also end up sitting in something that doesn't move, like you mentioned. While seemingly everything else is selling off. It is beyond frustrating. Ideally weakening names breaking down from a meaninful area on a volume supported by short-term cycle in SPY. Eg long term trend is down, SPY rallied for a few weeks, a stock of choice was in a range or creeping up just a bit all that time and on a day SPY sells that stocks trades below multi-day support in a pre-open and there is some volume, then you short it is ends up deep into profits by EOD. Just one of many examples. It rarely is that perfect. ATH large caps offer great R:R but can cost other opportunities while capital is tied. Wouldn't short beaten up ones, those can rally violently for no reason. Eg yesterday, lots of about to be bankrupt companies at 95% DD did.

DDOG is not a bad bet on a rally, can easily make 20% over a few days. It is cashflow neutral leader in its' industry, so not a bad long term hold eventually, just not in the middle of a bear market. DOCU is similar but has an exceptional RS and a very high buying volume since last earnnings, it can run for awhile pausing during market declines. No point in keeping either if they won't show more profit the next day though. Both are at the points of either rally or waste time.

RS visually for DOCU and DDOG:
View attachment 302720
View attachment 302719

Been watching NINE for awhile and holding some, not much due to the general market. Exceptional RS, keeps going up without much news, low cap/float, potential turn in financials, leading group.
More...
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TECH,QQQ sector /good uptrend;
CVX sector good downtrend\
CVX sector= such a good downtrend, i'll have to beware of buyers lik$3.33 buyers :D:D in NINE.
Amazing + shocking low, [many stocks ETFs] low volume on US debt budget day May 8. Amazing US gov overspending, most likely will not default. US may get another debt downgrade??
barchart.com still has a 88% sell on CVX\sectors till weak
 
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