Val's Discretionary Trading Journal

[ValeryN]

A long time follower asked in DM why I blurred positions names. It's not a big secret, honestly, they might just be taking attention away from the process, which matters much more. In my personal development the best learnings were not from knowing of someone's positions but rather their judgement of general conditions, how it evolved and how it impacted their exposure or trading size. There are some really good old journals here on ET. Many years ago I'd go day by day of some one trading let's say in 2008/2009 and look at the market then the stuff they posted. Lots of good lessons. Also seeing that no one is immune to mistakes. Happens to the best of us. It's what you do after that distinguishes the best from others.

As for the names I trade - anything that is high momentum and had history of big runs. Recently TSLA, META, SQ, DOCU, COIN, CVNA, YINN, YANG, SOXL, SOXS to name a few. ES to get a feel of general market. Once a setup is present and aligned with a general market - entry stalking is on.

 

[murray t turtle]

Just in case if someone tries to trade off my calls - trade with caution if you take it, determine in advance what would be your exit scenarios, how much you are willing to lose and how patient you will be till trade is in the green. I myself won't be in a trade for too long unless it's green soon, might also put it aside if market is not right for it and re-enter later. Could close/open during after-hours too. My original stop is mostly for volatility, many positions will be closed much sooner, typically 1/3-1/2 of original risk just because timing seems off. The absolute best R:R is when entering at exact right time, how will you know? You will not be asking this question when it happens. Otherwise, closing the trade sooner this way gives 2-3 attempts to enter on one unit of risk. This is how you make 5-20 units of risk on a trade, it's much more work but pays of. Hard to do with full time work unless working outside of trading hours.

I think @murray t turtle knows what he is doing, lived thru cycles and can put an idea into his framework and do fine, not everyone can. 4am-2pm PST I'm intensely focused on the market and positions, especially around new entries to keep risk as low as possible till they are suffeciently safe in the green to sit thru intraday or overnight noise. Posting updates here is just not a priority, I might or might not. Was in/out of TSLA multiple times during it's run, probably cought 50% of that move in total or more like 100% if held on a comfortable overnight size. There is a very successful xxx mil. trader I know who got spooked by it's price action on some day and bailed very early, then didn't re-enter. So it happens. Might just be busy with other positions at the time an miss re-entry point even though have the right original idea. Part of the game. As soon as you're in something when time is right it's fine. Occasionally I'd want to take a position but can't because all capital is already tied. One of the tricks I used on TSLA was intraday boosters. Eg when it offered great low risk entries intraday, on some days I accumulated 3-5 times size position from what would be comfortable holding overnight. In those cases, instead of going all in and hoping - I'd just take it off by the close, or most, then put size back on on a next good pattern. Different people different styles, whatever fits you or your schedule.

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LOL ALM0ST ''knoWs'' what i'm doing/probabilities, anyway. Buyin' a bit of TSLA.
One mom said Sunday her son [about 7 years]]got scratched buy the cat\ i mean by the CAT, playin with CAT like it was a dog she said.
I almost did a scratch on CAT, i had not traded it enough to know that CAT specialist really widened the bid /aSK. WOW.
AMZN up nice\ but i cant get the old IBKR [ IBD full page news ad] 4 stock ad..... AMZN +TSLA, ad out of my mind.
Clearly visible IBKR warning nothing herein is a buy recomendation; but it was full page color ad with Amzn+TSLA. No need to mention the other 2 stocks.
Actually a bit funny\fractional ad\ AMZN was priced @>$3,003 per share but in that ad IBKR had chopped the AMZN price to $25, TSLA $25 also, but due to much lower price of TSLA something like $999=/ IBKR had overweighted TSLA,,
AMZN has good YTD\ but SwiNG on NVDA+ MSFT, worked out fine;
but may not do NVDA again\down to much today.
Thats about the only advantage of daytrading i see / can cut losses better;
+ a diversification in time+ learn levels. Congrats to mr Musk he now hasa bear ETF on TSLA

 

[ValeryN]

Might not wanna touch my longs for some time now.

 

[murray t turtle]

Might not wanna touch my longs for some time now.

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MOSTLY, except sell SOFI,[finance + tech] good volume+ profits ;
GM/ F,RACE sector................ + SPY benchmark still strong....................................,, Nothin' here in is a buy recommendation.[Edit+ delayed i may exit some, especially if i see underperformance, or other wise reasons. Some good gainers single stocks like SOFI, may run a lot further, but not used to them like MSFT= not in either /as of now......]

 

[ValeryN]

Some good gainers single stocks like SOFI, may run a lot further, but not used to them like MSFT= not in either /as of now

This is not just few stocks went up. Wed was a very special day, FOMC language drammatically changed indicating there might not be a recession for a first time. This was likely the confirmation many investors were waiting for to get long. Market might run from here for quite some tome as it did in a past around quarterly GDP suprises and FOMC policy reactions. My swing hold period have been extended accordingly, accounting for those unusual curcuimstances.

 

[murray t turtle]

This is not just few stocks went up. Wed was a very special day, FOMC language drammatically changed indicating there might not be a recession for a first time. This was likely the confirmation many investors were waiting for to get long. Market might run from here for quite some tome as it did in a past around quarterly GDP suprises and FOMC policy reactions. My swing hold period have been extended accordingly, accounting for those unusual curcuimstances.

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Good points;
CAT+ DE sector a bit weak. But even one of the weaker ones, Ford in an historic underperformer sector as F/GM/RACE, TM, HMC......... sector looking good no wonder Ford built a huge EV+ E battery plant But F stock seemed to have trouble around $12,; $12 may not matter , much in an ETF.
Amazing AMZN was not down more, as of noon FRI; no wonder QQQ mostly up, same with SPY,,

 

[Nobert]

Might not wanna touch my longs for some time now.

Been a month, how is it going ?

 

[ValeryN]

Some personal stuff going on so don’t feel like posting much. After one short rally breakouts were failing most Feb so I switched to index futures for very short term moves. Thursday seemed like a buying attempt, similar to early Jan, so bought SQ and a few leveraged ETFs, then flew south. Will see how things are in a week. When market is down for so many days it’s either a break or an attempt to rally and it couldn’t break on Thu

 

[murray t turtle]

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MARCH has had some mean last half SPY sell offs, but good bottom sometimes, in a bull market.
Exit NVDA. Good uptrend in SPY/200dma
Good old IBD , IBKR ad=Portfolio Checkup. How old was that ad?? I should have put that AD in my notebook , but it had a smart phone SPY screen green price of $240.+/
Is that green SPY $240 +1; no its $240 more or less

 

[murray t turtle]

Yes, over the next 5y. I went from discretionary trading to automated systematic and shifting towards a hybrid now using the best of both. Automation takes all trades fitting under a "one size fits all" model and can't spot changing environments, but is winning on consistency, sometimes speed and emotions. If systems are broken into enough "sizes to fit into" you will do ok. The whole world is in a trending mode right now and this is where big money are made. Have no intention to day trade so to speak, but using day trading experience to accumulate meaningful positions that I can leave alone for awhile.

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Good;
+good trends. Occasional daytrade\ regional banks bounced a bit in thier downtrend.
Metals dealer had a CAT type track hoe with claw, good way to compact cars on concrete.
MARCH can put in the market lows for the year; but not a prediction LOL