Val's Discretionary Trading Journal

[ValeryN]

No didn’t short TSLA, don’t see R:R shorting names that are down so much so fast. Was long few times but took quick profits as price action indicated it wasn’t time for a rally. Like green volume coming in at these levels over past couple of weeks. Weekly looks great for a possible take off. It won’t even need strong market, just SPY not falling apart.

Furthermore, I’d add if gaps up on Monday.

 

[murray t turtle]

No didn’t short TSLA, don’t see R:R shorting names that are down so much so fast. Was long few times but took quick profits as price action indicated it wasn’t time for a rally. Like green volume coming in at these levels over past couple of weeks. Weekly looks great for a possible take off. It won’t even need strong market, just SPY not falling apart.

Furthermore, I’d add if gaps up on Monday.

%%
1st page of barchart green volume ETFs/ most all of them up\except corp bonds down some tics.
I thought XLE sector would be downweek just a little bit/ it closed up also.
CAT is still jumping up; amazing number of markets + stuff closed up the first week of JAN to repeat.
Mr Nobert said to me once ''you repeated'' ; i said you are right /markets do that also''
V-Pres Fed/ Alan Binder noted a JAN little article in WSJ+ closed with ''Happy New Year'',

 

[Nobert]

Do not keep a trade that is at a loss. Just admit you’re wrong, at least for now, and cut it.

Either original premise of a trade or time of operating is wrong. This is what creates even bigger losses or turns you into involuntary long term investor. Neither are good for account growth or mental health.

I’m sure we haven’t seen the bottom in US equities but my opinion is shit if market disagrees.

I ,,enjoyed" my Chinese, bottoms.

It was a humbling experience that provided painful, yet valuable lessons about allocation, exposure, Chinese valuations, emotions & etc.
The inner dialogue after being in red for 1 year+, it's invaluable.

The best one, was, (laughs) when i opened position, led by fomo (falling knife) and the next day, i had to actually, rub my eyes. The thing was down ~72%.
Should have recorded my face (we got cameras)

Anyway.

All that i can do is but to keep an eye on few other journals.

Good luck V.

Time to get em $'s.
(~~famous last words~~)

 

[murray t turtle]

I ,,enjoyed" my Chinese, bottoms.

It was a humbling experience that provided painful, yet valuable lessons about allocation, exposure, Chinese valuations, emotions & etc.
The inner dialogue after being in red for 1 year+, it's invaluable.

The best one, was, (laughs) when i opened position, led by fomo (falling knife) and the next day, i had to actually, rub my eyes. The thing was down ~72%.
Should have recorded my face (we got cameras)
Anyway.
All that i can do is but to keep an eye on few other journals.
Good luck V.

Time to get em $'s.
(~~famous last words~~)

%%
WELL, it could have gone up72% also
Amazing how many things will not even meet or beat benchmark SPY for 3 or 5 years;
CAT has , Vanguard VEA has not= good profit exit.
Deer & Company had some huge gap downs in 1930's; IBD chart book noted they lost money then, but gave credit to farmer then
Local John DE dealer had such good customer service\ people always remember that.
NOT a stock tip or prediction.,
If JETS doent improve soon; i may get out of it before it goes down or up72%[3 year average on that-35%, but good year to date%]
Easy to get out of a starting position.......

 

[ValeryN]

Sold all stocks, bought SOXS, keeping TMF

 

[murray t turtle]

Sold all stocks, bought SOXS, keeping TMF

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FUN run with the DE + Co chart\1930s split adjusted about $6 start.NOT in that one.
SOLD the ETFs, sector of stocksof gold\
GDX + related \smaller profit that i figured , but worth while. May get back in FRI or later?
NUE sector is making some strong new highs YTD , but thats not saying much in JAN/LOL
Good call on TSLA/ ;
in SH again/ mostly above 200dma. SPY= mostly below 200dma\2022\ 2023,

 

[ValeryN]

Shorted 3 stocks near the open, all but FSLR was waste of time. FSLR sold off too fast so closed it too. The rest looked too much like a pullback by mid-day. Noticed that when that happens, eg. no broken charts as a results of market selling, there are increased odds of buyers coming in thinking it was just a pullback. So closed positions again except TMF, time to see what the market will do, I have no edge at this "in-the-middle" price level on SPY.

 

[murray t turtle]

Shorted 3 stocks near the open, all but FSLR was waste of time. FSLR sold off too fast so closed it too. The rest looked too much like a pullback by mid-day. Noticed that when that happens, eg. no broken charts as a results of market selling, there are increased odds of buyers coming in thinking it was just a pullback. So closed positions again except TMF, time to see what the market will do, I have no edge at this "in-the-middle" price level on SPY.

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TAN[solar sector] had a monster run to the downside in 2008\ about 80% down.
SH starting position down -[-00.13%]end of day= if only all my losses were that small.
Took all profits on Vanguard VWO\
the 3 year average % + 5 year % are frankly terrible, on VWO. But good YTD.
SPY closed below50dma\200dma.
NUE is still above 200dma , not in that/ but good stock sector
Strangely, CAT has a better % gain /1 year/ 3 year/ 5 year than VWO. Thanks

 

[ValeryN]

Gotten back to stocks starting from pre-market, gradually built decent size position to benefit if it turns out a shake out before rally continues. Cought nice 20$ move in ES on 10 contracts, it seems to wanna go higher but 20 points in 1h is a good move. Stocks will do the rest. I'm ditching market recession thesis for now as it haven't proven benefitial for my trading since I started in Dec. Off to an island for a weekend. No computers. Will close weak positions before EOD. Probably wouldn't go on margin into the weekend unless market seems completely shaken off recent sell off.

 

[murray t turtle]

Gotten back to stocks starting from pre-market, gradually built decent size position to benefit if it turns out a shake out before rally continues. Cought nice 20$ move in ES on 10 contracts, it seems to wanna go higher but 20 points in 1h is a good move. Stocks will do the rest. I'm ditching market recession thesis for now as it haven't proven benefitial for my trading since I started in Dec. Off to an island for a weekend. No computers. Will close weak positions before EOD. Probably wouldn't go on margin into the weekend unless market seems completely shaken off recent sell off.

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Exits on some top trending tech stuff\ i see some are buying F [Ford] sector/ off 200 week moving average; not in Ford, great car co\ $11 stocks average drop to much for me to get much in to them, generally.
They 're buying some more tech stocks off 200 week moving average.
Had planned on buying more US Steel/great old line co\ decided to sell it\
least profitable. Hard to believe some library gave away a good kids book on Mr Carnegie's Co, old line co. Nucor Corp still uptickin' to new highs area. Not a prediction
Almost bought some TQQQ, nice uptrend; but this close to SPY 200dma, cash stocks + ETFs allow much more flexibility+ some occasional dividends.
.BAC / ING[ orderly orange lion = co sign]sector up again.,
SH little loss- [-0.95] ;but since its up for week on charts, may or may not exit, by EOD.