Valeant? VRX

Daal said:
Congrats to shorts
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Thanks Daal, however I think the company's debt burden is of more interest than any schadenfreude relating to Ackman's position.

It's possible the stock could close above $12.11 tomorrow, but that wouldn't answer the question of how the company can repay its $29.846 billion of debt.

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Can't say I'm shocked a major holder liquidated. The sudden drop and trend break on Feb 28 suggested some real selling happening.

What are the odds uncle carl gets in on this on the long side and buys ack's stake? Can be a moment to 'teach who's daddy' so to speak, in terms of activist investing. What more can show who's boss than for carl to buy VRX now and turn it around as an activist investor, after a nemesis just sold their stake at a huge loss?
 
Evidently the sale was not dumped on the market at all.

It makes you scratch your head and wonder about the price action. It's as if someone knew ahead of time and the market conveniently dumped this hard weeks in advance from the 16s to 12, right before word got out that the sale price of the lot will be around $11 for the lot.

Or maybe it was decided recently and offered at a discount to closing price as of late in the 12s.

Either way, smells a little funny in keeping with the typical WS tune. Just like MBLY or whatever else heavy short dated call buying that seems to happen before a merger happens. Magic? Luck?
 
beefcaketrade said:
Evidently the sale was not dumped on the market at all.

It makes you scratch your head and wonder about the price action. It's as if someone knew ahead of time and the market conveniently dumped this hard weeks in advance from the 16s to 12, right before word got out that the sale price of the lot will be around $11 for the lot.

Or maybe it was decided recently and offered at a discount to closing price as of late in the 12s.

Either way, smells a little funny in keeping with the typical WS tune. Just like MBLY or whatever else heavy short dated call buying that seems to happen before a merger happens. Magic? Luck?
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This is way too much of a conspiracy theory. The simple fact is that VRX's financial results on February 28 were poor, and since that release, investors have realized how close the company is to violating its covenants.

Then you can add to that the negative reaction to the company's 10-k filing on March 1 at 3.03pm.

If the stock is going to zero, then of course there has been a selling stampede since February 28.

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m22au said:
This is way too much of a conspiracy theory. The simple fact is that VRX's financial results on February 28 were poor, and since that release, investors have realized how close the company is to violating its covenants.

Then you can add to that the negative reaction to the company's 10-k filing on March 1 at 3.03pm.

If the stock is going to zero, then of course there has been a selling stampede since February 28.

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I guess it can go either way. It also got dumped on better earnings beat. So I guess good news is bad news. Bad news is also bad news and gets dumped. How does this work again? Then again, to your point, a shyt stock gets dumped as a natural order of things.

Ultimately, we're doing the same thing. Making assumptions behind what drives price action. On one hand, one might wonder if there was inside information being traded on or front running. You on the other hand equate the price action to fundamentals, BK risk, and projecting what 'the market participants' must be doing in response to what you see as deteriorating fundamentals that everyone else sees. Either way, it involves trying to pin a reason behind price action. Since nobody can do this, and nobody knows why a stock goes up or down on a day to day basis, I guess it's a moot point in trying to argue this further. Just stating spidey senses.

Yes, I think it looks a little 'interesting' here. I'm not betting the farm on the theory. Just a feeling I have. Stock dumps hard suddenly and stock gets offered on a prearranged deal around but below market closing price as of late. Hmm. When were the shares offered? Just recently like Monday or earlier? Hey, maybe the heavy short dated call buying right before Heinz-Kraft merger deal was fluke too. Maybe you can write that up as someone seeing good fundamentals and investing accordingly. That may be true. But it also just smells a little funny.
 
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beefcaketrade said:
I guess it can go either way. It also got dumped on better earnings beat. So I guess good news is bad news. Bad news is also bad news and gets dumped. How does this work again? Then again, to your point, a shyt stock gets dumped as a natural order of things.

Ultimately, we're doing the same thing. Making assumptions behind what drives price action. On one hand, one might wonder if there was inside information being traded on or front running. You on the other hand equate the price action to fundamentals, BK risk, and projecting what 'the market participants' must be doing in response to what you see as deteriorating fundamentals that everyone else sees. Either way, it involves trying to pin a reason behind price action. Since nobody can do this, and nobody knows why a stock goes up or down on a day to day basis, I guess it's a moot point in trying to argue this further. Just stating spidey senses.

Yes, I think it looks a little 'interesting' here. I'm not betting the farm on the theory. Just a feeling I have. Stock dumps hard suddenly and stock gets offered on a prearranged deal around but below market closing price as of late. Hmm. When were the shares offered? Just recently like Monday or earlier? Hey, maybe the heavy short dated call buying right before Heinz-Kraft merger deal was fluke too. Maybe you can write that up as someone seeing good fundamentals and investing accordingly. That may be true. But it also just smells a little funny.
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The bad news I think was their plan to refinance their debt wasn't very convincing.
 
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