Valeant? VRX

m22au said:
"Valeant, Salix, sales force and asset sales"
http://brontecapital.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/valeant-salix-sales-force-and-asset.html

"Finally they can't sell Salix for anything like what they paid for it (and that was the single most obvious sale candidate). Other sale candidates will have bigger separation problems.

"Debt outstanding is roughly cumulative acquisition cost. This won't wind down nicely.

"Indeed bankruptcy looms. Late next year probably."

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I love when you are bear. Usually, this is time to buy.
I remembered when you explained one year ago how shorting Brazil stocks were a zero risk strategy. At that time, SID quoted 0.80 dollars.
1 year and a half later : SID quotes close to 4 dollars or a little +500%.

I was really negative about Valeant, but now ! Time for shorts to get out ?!

CM

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Chris Mac said:
I love when you are bear. Usually, this is time to buy.
I remembered when you explained one year ago how shorting Brazil stocks were a zero risk strategy. At that time, SID quoted 0.80 dollars.
1 year and a half later : SID quotes close to 4 dollars or a little +500%.

I was really negative about Valeant, but now ! Time for shorts to get out ?!

CM

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Chris you really should know better than this. There is a massive difference between "how shorting Brazil stocks were a zero risk strategy" and the post of mine that you've quoted.

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m22au said:
Chris you really should know better than this. There is a massive difference between "how shorting Brazil stocks were a zero risk strategy" and the post of mine that you've quoted.

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Maybe, but IMO you are too much trend follower / fundamentalist, and you seem to ignore price action. Without price action analysis, poor entry/exit.

CM
 
Chris Mac said:
Maybe, but IMO you are too much trend follower / fundamentalist, and you seem to ignore price action. Without price action analysis, poor entry/exit.

CM
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It's not always possible to know ex ante where price will go. To insist this is the case would be dishonest.
Again, I'll refer you to the post of mine you quoted earlier:

"The thing about shorts is that you often know the endgame entirely. ... Gravity tends to work. But you don’t know when.The whole thing is seductive because the profits are guaranteed if you can hold the position. This can be very hard because a stock can go up five times before it collapses."

and

"To offset that timing risk, we want to have a small stake in hundreds of shorts."

https://www.google.com/#q=The+whole...tock+can+go+up+five+times+before+it+collapses

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A new 52-week low of $12.90 for VRX on Friday.

This follows the full year 2016 financial results report on Tuesday:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/885590/000119312517060198/d336809dex991.htm

And the 10-K filing on Wednesday:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/885590/000088559017000015/valeant2016form10-k.htm

Even after the declines over the past year and a bit, the company still has a market cap of over $4.4 billion.

Long-term debt as at 31 December 2016 was $29.846 billion as shown on page F-39 of the 10-K.

Annual maturities and mandatory amortization payments are listed on page F-40, with $3.738 billion due in 2018. The total debt figure on that page is $29.846 billion (after unamortized discounts).

Combined debt and lease obligations are shown on page 72, with $9.187 billion of debt and interest payments due in "2018 and 2019".
The total "debt obligations" figure is $38.976 billion. This amount includes interest, which explains why it is higher than the $29.846 billion which is principal only.

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