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V Bottom
- Thread starter stonedinvestor
- Start date
I have to totally agree with that last statement. Not one person I have talked to has predicted a down year that's never happened before. Slightly ominous. I wonder if this wasn't the first shot in this liquidity play turning the other way. I'll be honest when I here about all this cash ready to pounce it scares me it freezes me. I'm holding stuff. I've had two former portfolio positions LBO'd without me already for huge gains. You just can't fight that. These rates being steady& low for so long... if the next move is down it will literally set off a vertical spike in equities the liquidity will be gushing- that's why the fed's kind of trapped , he has to raise next time and somehow he has to find enough clues in the economy to cover that move. otherwise the whole ball of wax is going to melt up and out of control.
What exactly is going to happen when China does report slower growth? Our industrial stocks are going to take it hard.
there's just something slightly surreal I can't put my finger on about yesterday. There's a bigger story than someone miscompute the DOW's total number- I'm not buying that. The white house I believe is really pissed at Greenspan, his words though they were misquoted to the AP! Take a moment and think about that. He says we could have a recessional this year AND IT'S WIRED OUT GREENSPAN SAYS WE WILL HAVE A recession LATE 07'! That's what I read, that's what I made a frantic sell decision or two based on ( goodbye dear Trinity!) Whoever transposed those words held in his very hands the fate of the whole American stock market think of the power and think of the possibilities.
A short conspiracy may come out of this if's not that it's the full freakin' eclipse.
I'm feeling creepy about all this....
What exactly is going to happen when China does report slower growth? Our industrial stocks are going to take it hard.
there's just something slightly surreal I can't put my finger on about yesterday. There's a bigger story than someone miscompute the DOW's total number- I'm not buying that. The white house I believe is really pissed at Greenspan, his words though they were misquoted to the AP! Take a moment and think about that. He says we could have a recessional this year AND IT'S WIRED OUT GREENSPAN SAYS WE WILL HAVE A recession LATE 07'! That's what I read, that's what I made a frantic sell decision or two based on ( goodbye dear Trinity!) Whoever transposed those words held in his very hands the fate of the whole American stock market think of the power and think of the possibilities.
A short conspiracy may come out of this if's not that it's the full freakin' eclipse.
I'm feeling creepy about all this....
apex the market didn't sell off. The market had the same reaction it had when a jet plane loaded with people smashed into the heart of the financial district.
You want to equate a valuation step back to that?
We have to not brush this off as much as figure out exactly what happened.
You want to equate a valuation step back to that?
We have to not brush this off as much as figure out exactly what happened.
I'm feeling Electric Savant-like tonight folks sorry.
But did anyone else have a bad feeling when these exchanges went public? I did. What is the NYSE incentive to upgrade their technology when they have to report a bottom line to shareholders? . Pennies will be pinched. And this goes for all of corporate america- take out the damn pocketbook! You are going to kill us. There was an inventory build up> it's been cleared out but there is a danger here building as earnings slow, these corporations keep putting off the spending and we have a couple bad QTRS in tech coming up.
But did anyone else have a bad feeling when these exchanges went public? I did. What is the NYSE incentive to upgrade their technology when they have to report a bottom line to shareholders? . Pennies will be pinched. And this goes for all of corporate america- take out the damn pocketbook! You are going to kill us. There was an inventory build up> it's been cleared out but there is a danger here building as earnings slow, these corporations keep putting off the spending and we have a couple bad QTRS in tech coming up.
$13,000 in cash my friend god help me very reckless.
I raised 17% cash twice in the last two months (once two weeks ago!) and for whatever reason not now. Don't feel good about that. I see short names starting to deliver good returns (BMC anyone) I'm on the fence-- might switch to a long short barbell approach soon.
I raised 17% cash twice in the last two months (once two weeks ago!) and for whatever reason not now. Don't feel good about that. I see short names starting to deliver good returns (BMC anyone) I'm on the fence-- might switch to a long short barbell approach soon.
Stony-
kudos man...you are thinkin! bbbuuuuutt. I didnt see a v bottom today. If it had been, i would go along wiht it...even though i am a bear for the time being.
a v bottom is when the pulback period matches the drop period but the inverse..or gets pretty damn close.
what I saw today was caution..on both sides.
I see a few very key things which keep me on the bear side for the time being..
1. no change in interest rates a few times is often a transition to lower interest rates...look at the correlation
2. standard bull bear cycles
3. standard boom bust business cycles
4. inverted yield curve
5. the amazing housing/ stock market correlations. housing is a leading indicator.
6. lack of continued upward momentum..with scary downward corrections...like yesterday
7. a flight to quality stocks by major institutions
8. a flight to A and above bonds
9. higer relative interest rate than a few years ago...what 13 rate hikes? they arent HIGH but realtively compared to 2003
10. diminished wealth effect
11. i could go on and on
i dont see a great case for continues growth other than "everything is ok for now"
well my friend...everything is GREAT right before it isnt.
grrrr. bear.
kudos man...you are thinkin! bbbuuuuutt. I didnt see a v bottom today. If it had been, i would go along wiht it...even though i am a bear for the time being.
a v bottom is when the pulback period matches the drop period but the inverse..or gets pretty damn close.
what I saw today was caution..on both sides.
I see a few very key things which keep me on the bear side for the time being..
1. no change in interest rates a few times is often a transition to lower interest rates...look at the correlation
2. standard bull bear cycles
3. standard boom bust business cycles
4. inverted yield curve
5. the amazing housing/ stock market correlations. housing is a leading indicator.
6. lack of continued upward momentum..with scary downward corrections...like yesterday
7. a flight to quality stocks by major institutions
8. a flight to A and above bonds
9. higer relative interest rate than a few years ago...what 13 rate hikes? they arent HIGH but realtively compared to 2003
10. diminished wealth effect
11. i could go on and on
i dont see a great case for continues growth other than "everything is ok for now"
well my friend...everything is GREAT right before it isnt.
grrrr. bear.