Sure thing. It seems to me that oil price is stabilizing, even though there are many experts who claim that we didn't see the bottom.
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UWTI: ETF for oil
- Thread starter MrJayHyung
- Start date
Sure thing. It seems to me that oil price is stabilizing, even though there are many experts who claim that we didn't see the bottom.
Sure thing. It seems to me that oil price is stabilizing, even though there are many experts who claim that we didn't see the bottom.
I have read through dozens of articles and its literally split right down the middle. 1/2 saying its stabalized between 48-52 and headed for 60-70 by end of this year and others suggesting $20-$30 or at least a visit of new lows from a few weeks back....on Wednesday that was a huge buildup of inventory ...I was surprised to see oil up Thursday and Friday significantly ....I bought UWTI under $3 on Wednesday and sold it on Friday at around $3.70. I have a feeling it will break $4 next week but if oil inventory is high next week oil will trade below $50....what I find really interesting is how short the bottoming process has taken, that of course is if low 40s was the bottom. Today it seems markets find bottoms in a few months and back off to the races we go...it would have been nice to enjoy $2 gas but it seems again greed always wins...speculation will drive it higher especially all those on wallstreet who are betting on higher oil. That in itself creates higher prices without even supply and demand being a factor...with the amount of oil we now produce here fair value should be $25-$40. With all new technologies breaking through I wouldn't doubt that in 20 years oil will be obsolete from our everyday use...
I have read through dozens of articles and its literally split right down the middle. 1/2 saying its stabalized between 48-52 and headed for 60-70 by end of this year and others suggesting $20-$30 or at least a visit of new lows from a few weeks back....on Wednesday that was a huge buildup of inventory ...I was surprised to see oil up Thursday and Friday significantly ....I bought UWTI under $3 on Wednesday and sold it on Friday at around $3.70. I have a feeling it will break $4 next week but if oil inventory is high next week oil will trade below $50....what I find really interesting is how short the bottoming process has taken, that of course is if low 40s was the bottom. Today it seems markets find bottoms in a few months and back off to the races we go...it would have been nice to enjoy $2 gas but it seems again greed always wins...speculation will drive it higher especially all those on wallstreet who are betting on higher oil. That in itself creates higher prices without even supply and demand being a factor...with the amount of oil we now produce here fair value should be $25-$40. With all new technologies breaking through I wouldn't doubt that in 20 years oil will be obsolete from our everyday use...
Surely, considering the actual demand and supply level, the price has to be set between $30-$40, if not lower. But due to the fact that people are quite unaccustomed to such price level, investors--well, mainly speculators--are working as a supporting line for those price ranges that are discussed in many articles.
In a sense, such movement perfectly makes sense because, in my opinion, it is definitely impossible to find a substitute of oil in near future. Matter of a fact, most OPEC countries cannot sustain their financial balance, if the current price level remains for longer period.
Unless we devise more efficient way--thus, more cost-effective--to produce the oil or invent or find new energy source that can work as a substitute of oil, it is inevitable to confront with higher oil price, which, I guess, will be around $70, if not higher.
FEB 16, 2015 6:00 PM EST
He is predicting $10-$20 oil....
By A. Gary Shilling
At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20. Here’s why.
U.S. economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009. That's about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession since the 1930s. Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is negative in Japan. Throw in the large increase in U.S. vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and it’s clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articl...-likely-to-fall-as-supplies-rise-demand-falls
He is predicting $10-$20 oil....
By A. Gary Shilling
At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20. Here’s why.
U.S. economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009. That's about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession since the 1930s. Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is negative in Japan. Throw in the large increase in U.S. vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and it’s clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articl...-likely-to-fall-as-supplies-rise-demand-falls
FEB 16, 2015 6:00 PM EST
He is predicting $10-$20 oil....
By A. Gary Shilling
At about $50 a barrel, crude oil prices are down by more than half from their June 2014 peak of $107. They may fall more, perhaps even as low as $10 to $20. Here’s why.
U.S. economic growth has averaged 2.3 percent a year since the recovery started in mid-2009. That's about half the rate you might expect in a rebound from the deepest recession since the 1930s. Meanwhile, growth in China is slowing, is minimal in the euro zone and is negative in Japan. Throw in the large increase in U.S. vehicle gas mileage and other conservation measures and it’s clear why global oil demand is weak and might even decline.
http://www.bloombergview.com/articl...-likely-to-fall-as-supplies-rise-demand-falls
As many speculators insist, even at this point, the demand for oil is continuously declining. China and U.S., which are the greatest consumers of the world economy and the oil industry, are facing the lowest growth rate, recently. However, the oil price will not necessarily drop even further, because it is too reckless--even naive, in some ways--to assume that current level of production will remain the same, when the demand is too low to maintain the break-even price range for most producers. Surely, many countries in OPEC, as well as those unconventional oil producers in U.S., will reduce their output, if not stopping to produce anymore.
In this circumstance, where there are so many factors that affect the oil price, it is best to establish our strategies based on the fundamental logic behind the complex picture: no producer, except Saudi and few imprudent countries, will produce oil at $10-$20. Chicken game, by nature, cannot be played for substantially long period.
Sold uwti Friday around $3.20....bought this morning 1/4 position under $3.00
Also bought DGAZ @ 5.96 think it trades back to $7. Another volatile play
Oil dipping again. Could fall to new lows which I believe it will. Wish the markets would be as volatile as oil.
Out of DGAZ moments ago at $6.25. 5% gain! Will go to $7, but just taking profits now.
trading at $6.29 now, quick mover. Intraday high $6.34
Out of DGAZ moments ago at $6.25. 5% gain! Will go to $7, but just taking profits now.
trading at $6.29 now, quick mover. Intraday high $6.34
OUCHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH....
just 2 more days and look at what happens, it surges yet again!
HUGE 12% RALLY,
That would have been a huge return for me, instead I wasn't greedy and took my 5% profit!
go figure.
Maybe time to buy some UGAZ!!!!
and wait for DGAZ to drop below $6 again!
CS VS 3x I NG ETN
NYSEARCA: DGAZ - Feb 26 10:31 AM ET
7.320.84 (12.96%)
Oh no, Gartman says $15 oil??? $15 oil? Last time he thought back in October that the s$p and the rest of the markets were going into a bear market correction, he got that really wrong, now here he is predicting $15 oil??? I mean Im bearish on somethings but to believe $15 oil is coming, hmmmm, I don't think so. If thats the case then this global economy is really big trouble.
Speaking of this unexpected decline in oil that literally ZERO people predicted, is it possible the same could be said for stocks, if you asked anyone a year ago where oil would be trading on average in 2015 about 99.9% of people were saying 80-120 a barrel, we are well below that, we could have the same happen in the dow or s$p, no one is expecting a 25-40%% decline in stocks, that could happen just as fast as oil dropped from over $100 to under $45 a barrel in only 6 months....
Dennis Gartman has bad news for oil (Intercontinental Exchange Europe: @WTCL20J-GB): It's going to go "stunningly" lower.
In an interview Thursday with CNBC.com's "Futures Now," the Commodities King said that a combination of a rapidly rising inventories and a strong dollar could lead to $15 oil by the end of the year.
"For months I've said that crude oil is heading from the upper left to the lower right of the chart," said the CNBC contributor and editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter. "I wouldn't be surprised if oil went down to about $15 a barrel."
Crude oil prices have been in a steep and steady decline over the past six months, down more than 50 percent trading just above $40 a barrel. Traders had hoped an improving economic picture in both the U.S. and Europe could give crude a lift.
At the start of February, crude staged a sharp and violent rally off its lows. But according to Gartman, there simply is too much supply to contend with. As such, he expects future crude rallies to be met with a similar fate.
"That is not how a bull market is supposed to act," he said. "That is how a bear market acts."
Gartman said he's looking to the crude futures market for clues on when the selling may abate. Currently forward prices for crude contracts are higher than near-term or spot prices, a dynamic referred to as contango. Futures traders say this is typically a bearish sign as it reflects an excess near-term supply. As inventories build, storage could soon become a serious issue.
"We're going to have an abundance of crude. Storage is going to be topped out very soon and the front month spread is going to continue to deteriorate," he said.
Gartman says until nearer-dated crude contracts become more valuable than longer-dated ones, oil will continue to slide.
"No if, and, or but about it," said Gartman. "As [the contango] widens, your propensity, your urge, your intense and any [other] desire to be a buyer of crude will be deferred."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gartman-crude-could-hit-15-114809196.html
Speaking of this unexpected decline in oil that literally ZERO people predicted, is it possible the same could be said for stocks, if you asked anyone a year ago where oil would be trading on average in 2015 about 99.9% of people were saying 80-120 a barrel, we are well below that, we could have the same happen in the dow or s$p, no one is expecting a 25-40%% decline in stocks, that could happen just as fast as oil dropped from over $100 to under $45 a barrel in only 6 months....
Dennis Gartman has bad news for oil (Intercontinental Exchange Europe: @WTCL20J-GB): It's going to go "stunningly" lower.
In an interview Thursday with CNBC.com's "Futures Now," the Commodities King said that a combination of a rapidly rising inventories and a strong dollar could lead to $15 oil by the end of the year.
"For months I've said that crude oil is heading from the upper left to the lower right of the chart," said the CNBC contributor and editor and publisher of The Gartman Letter. "I wouldn't be surprised if oil went down to about $15 a barrel."
Crude oil prices have been in a steep and steady decline over the past six months, down more than 50 percent trading just above $40 a barrel. Traders had hoped an improving economic picture in both the U.S. and Europe could give crude a lift.
At the start of February, crude staged a sharp and violent rally off its lows. But according to Gartman, there simply is too much supply to contend with. As such, he expects future crude rallies to be met with a similar fate.
"That is not how a bull market is supposed to act," he said. "That is how a bear market acts."
Gartman said he's looking to the crude futures market for clues on when the selling may abate. Currently forward prices for crude contracts are higher than near-term or spot prices, a dynamic referred to as contango. Futures traders say this is typically a bearish sign as it reflects an excess near-term supply. As inventories build, storage could soon become a serious issue.
"We're going to have an abundance of crude. Storage is going to be topped out very soon and the front month spread is going to continue to deteriorate," he said.
Gartman says until nearer-dated crude contracts become more valuable than longer-dated ones, oil will continue to slide.
"No if, and, or but about it," said Gartman. "As [the contango] widens, your propensity, your urge, your intense and any [other] desire to be a buyer of crude will be deferred."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gartman-crude-could-hit-15-114809196.html