USO - time to go long oil

[Turveyd]

Been considering the same ( Likely won't risk this ), but been considering building a position to the long side, some limits basically.

Ie Long USOil, 35.80, 35.20, 34.40, Margin call @32.50.

IF I get filled on all 3 and get the math right to not get called before then a run back to 42.00 say, would triple my account.

D1 wise, setting up a sideways pause channel, which way we break out, impossible to say.

I fancy a 1 month hold to triple or seriously damage my account.

 

[Maverick74]

Been considering the same ( Likely won't risk this ), but been considering building a position to the long side, some limits basically.

Ie Long USOil, 35.80, 35.20, 34.40, Margin call @32.50.

IF I get filled on all 3 and get the math right to not get called before then a run back to 42.00 say, would triple my account.

D1 wise, setting up a sideways pause channel, which way we break out, impossible to say.

I fancy a 1 month hold to triple or seriously damage my account.

This is not mathematically possible even with "fuzzy math".

 

[Turveyd]

This is not mathematically possible even with "fuzzy math".

Spot account, so can be quite accurate on my Contract size, so yes it is!!

just work out what contract size, the 3x's the account is a guess on a move to 42, not worked out the maths on that 1.

 

[Maverick74]

Spot account, so can be quite accurate on my Contract size, so yes it is!!

just work out what contract size, the 3x's the account is a guess on a move to 42, not worked out the maths on that 1.

You need to spend more time on the math. The ETF's are long the curve which is steep in contango. They are not a bet on spot oil. In fact, it's conceivable they could actually drop in value on a move to 42 if the market suddenly went into backwardation.

 

[Turveyd]

You need to spend more time on the math. The ETF's are long the curve which is steep in contango. They are not a bet on spot oil. In fact, it's conceivable they could actually drop in value on a move to 42 if the market suddenly went into backwardation.

Sorry but what, if my spot oil price, 36 currently goes to 42 then I could lose money, that's not how it works, think your majorly over thinking this !!

 

[Maverick74]

Sorry but what, if my spot oil price, 36 currently goes to 42 then I could lose money, that's not how it works, think your majorly over thinking this !!

Yes sir. You better do a little more research Mr. Papa Georgio. Those oil ETF's are not long physical, they are long the forward curve which is massively steep right now. If that curve inverts, it will take more then one doctor to remove that sharp object from your backside.

 

[felixbocharov]

Investing in oil could be extremely risky, but USO looks nice, $11 before the NY, $17 - 20 in 2016.

 

[londonkid]

Investing in oil could be extremely risky, but USO looks nice, $11 before the NY, $17 - 20 in 2016.

I can guarantee one thing. Many traders will lose a tonne of money trying to pick tops and bottoms. At present I think we will see a squeeze up to $40 before heading to the $20s sometime in the next 12 months.

 

[recession2016]

Goldman-Sachs and Citibank suggests you make your target $20

Iran is going to start pumping oil for legal export in 2016, and on Dec 18 the number of NEW U.S. Oil Rigs drilling for shale oil actually rose by 4.

OPEC and Russia are suffering, and in order to support the totalitarian welfare states they simply cannot afford to slow down the pumping.

goldman sachs also said oil was going to go to $200 when it peaked in '08

what they say is irrelevant in terms of price action

 

[NoVoodooHere]

How does that fit with your broader thesis of a recession in 2016, might I ask?