USM3 : How high can it go?

[Monsoon]

realistically where is the ceiling on the 30 yr bond?
Look at this chart I took from www.britefutures.com

 

[Monsoon]

doh.. learning to attach files
:eek:

 

[regough]

Monsoon,

I'll bet it can go a lot higher than we think it can(anybody remember the NAZ back in 1st qtr 2000?)

But, I know what you mean- anytime I see parabolic moves like this, I get a little skittish(harder to control my risk. . . . . )

(Anybody know what bond price correleates to 0(zero) % interest rate???)

 

[MarathonTrading]

In ISDA Master Agreements (agreements covering over the counter trades like swaps...), some lawyers have included rules in case of negative interest rates....

 

[Monsoon]

Quote from MarathonTrading:

negative interest rates.

you pay someone to take your money...kinda like taxes

 

[MarathonTrading]

That's what some lawyers say: negative=negative..... but others say.... negative=positive

 

[Walther]

I would say 120 for June. Be careful with selling right now. I am waiting for a war news to establish longer term Bond position.
Walter

 

[atorchio]

Wouldn't bonds fall?

Stocks should rise and conversely bonds fall.

alberto

 

[Monsoon]

Quote from atorchio:

Wouldn't bonds fall?

Stocks should rise and conversely bonds fall.

alberto

It happened in 1991, however some differences in the expected difficulties of taking iraq ( easier this time) and the whole Geo-Political mess are all working to make this a tough one to call.

 

[Walther]

In a theory yes, but I am sure there will be running of stops on both sides this assuming that war goes well. If there are large casualties of our troops and war will last long, god knows what will happen. I am bearish Bonds, just not sure we saw top already.
Walter