Using Pivots

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OK then, President Bush is taking everyone's attention away from the market, so I have a moment here to take a closer look at your post.

I am surprised and amused. I have taken the time to read your posts and frankly, I see no effort on your part to help anyone. You do however, hover around and make snide remarks, so you must "know better" than the rest of us. I prefer to try to help other traders with something that reflects my experience. If you consider it "useless and illustrated crap", then why look in here?

Surely you can be doing something more productive with your valuable time. I suggest you do just that.

"Be good"

Lefty
 
Back to something a little more productive. Here I have another chart (more "useless illustrated crap") and as you can see, price has moved above a pivot level. What readers may not know is that this pivot level is also a weekly level. One might (in earlier days) be tempted to take a countertrend trade here. In fact this is (in my opinion) a mistake. The market is thin and there is no volume (institutional or otherwise) to support the trade. I would be waiting for resumption of the down trend.
 

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OK fine,

Now a little more useless "illustrated crap". On this next chart we can see how price has failed to stay above the pivot (daily and weekly). This may or may not signal a breakdown to lower levels. What I would do here is to be short with a tight stop looking for more downside. I believe there are no buyers participating at this point so the only upside will come from programs or hedgers looking to buy in at a bargain. If the trade moves south, I would be looking to add below 1204. The next support is at 1200 even, where I would be taking profits.

From my point of view this is difficult price action to trade, and if I were a retail trader, I would not be taking positions today. Unfortunately I don't have that option.

Good luck everyone.
Lefty
 

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You know, so far your comments have consisted primarily of telling us to "be good". You say you have tried to help out, but I am still waiting for an intelligent comment on the technical issues.

In contrast to your claim that you have helped others however I don't see any evidence of it recently. I am guessing that we will be waiting a long time for you to grace us with a comment that moves our understanding forward.

I'm about as "good" as I can be thank you.

Lefty.
 
Even us "retail traders" had an easy short at the bounce back to the 20ema for a test of the bottom. Admittedly this is not much of a spread but on YM it was right at 20 points which is good enough for me.
 
Nononsense. Your being an ass.

Lefty is going out of his way to help out. Instead of attacking would it not be better to contribute as well? Everyone seems to love attacking others. I guess this is human nature.

ozzy
 
Congratulations on that short trade Easyrider. You bring up a good point. In this thin market, it makes sense to consider trying the YM as the moves are easier (in my opinion) to read in these conditions.

Incidentally, I don't think of the word "retail" as having a negative conotation. I do believe that MOST retail traders lack the skills to make money. So I hope you are in the minority.

See ya
Lefty
 
Quote from Lefty62151:

Congratulations on that short trade Easyrider. You bring up a good point. In this thin market, it makes sense to consider trying the YM as the moves are easier (in my opinion) to read in these conditions.

Incidentally, I don't think of the word "retail" as having a negative conotation. I do believe that MOST retail traders lack the skills to make money. So I hope you are in the minority.

See ya
Lefty
More...

I didnt take it negatively. I like being a retail trader. I do appreciate your posts also. :)

p.s. I do envy you your floor experience. I wish I had gotten into this 40 years ago.
 
Interesting thing (from my point of view) happened just now at 12:30 exactly. A small buy program hit the market with the $ticki showing readings of +28 and then +30, but the market did not move up much. This was an obvious program as it is lunchtime in NY and the first team is off the floor. This was probably a small fund trying to buy in cheap. Traders who saw it, might have taken the short entry to make a point on the retrace.

See ya
Lefty

Heres a good example of a mistake on my part. I see that the move may have some legs. We'll see. I learn something every day.
 
Ok then, heres another chart. First thing to know is that this time period (the 2PM bar) is famous for breakout moves. Today we had the Beige book report come out. Look at the bars that preceeded the move. All of them closed at the same place. Then we have what I view as a headfake. Finally the report is issued and the response is a b/o north for an easy profit.

Now the questions;

How do I "know" the report will be positive.

Ans: experience, contacts

How do I know that the move down was a "headfake"

Ans: Again, experience

What is the basis for claiming that 2PM is a particularly important time frame for breakouts.

Ans: Just check out previous intraday charts. There are many examples of breakouts that happen right at 2PM EST. So many that I pass other setups, waiting for this bar.

Edit:

Sorry about the mistake, the profit on that trade would have been 3 points max. I was in a hurry to get the chart out.

Lefty
 

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