Most future price models that are created in this space, rely heavily on different variables seen in historic and current data. The past isn't always an indication of future results, as the stock market at it's core is pure randomness(basic explanation is everything is priced in, in this omniscient being), however the past(not going to dive into current occuring events in this rant)is all we have to attempt to create an understanding for the market driven on the madness of men(as Issac Newton famously described it). We attempt to create a method that makes sense to us on how things work in this space. However these are purely man-made laws that are subject to revision and change.
Using past data to model possible future price movement
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F=MA could predict with a high probability that the apple was going to fall on his noggin.
But running the same experiment over millions of trials in parallel universes at least one wind gust will swoop in and knock the apple off of its trajectory and that universe would not have F=MA formally defined.
But running the same experiment over millions of trials in parallel universes at least one wind gust will swoop in and knock the apple off of its trajectory and that universe would not have F=MA formally defined.
This is a contradiction. If the market were completely random then what exactly are they pricing in?
Implied volatility pretty much, there is a chance for anything to happen, so the value of said event occuring is never equal to 0. "Priced in" is what allows these possibles to take place, as the market is a collection of independent variables, that effect the ultimate outcome. For example if some people expect the United States to engage in a war with China, those people would react accordingly to such based on this belief(whether it happens or not, there are people with crazy thoughts), ultimately the market is a collection of these ideas of different traders taking different sides to different expected future outcomes, and it creates kind of a sense of randomness(market is driven by so many variables it's easier to call it random), however the market had all future events factored in by people looking for opportunities, there is a trade taken for every possible thought on the future.(I know this is some wall street bets level yapping lol)
There is absolutely nothing random about the market. Clearly it follows predictable patterns. That's how That's how you have trends. I (and others) were calling for Bitcoin hitting 40k by Jan since summer since it was at its lows of 16. And here we are .That's not random. Volatility doesn't tell you s***.... Price movement creates volatility volatility doesn't create price movement
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Whether their manipulations coincides with the chart or the chart coincides with their manipulations is a chicken or the egg question... The point being that the manipulation is baked in the chart so thus predictable.
you have given me something to think about, however at the end of the day I am discussing economic theories, and everyone has their own opinion
thank you
this is a WHOLE different thing from what I'm talking about, it's another variable, however firms manipulateing assets, does exist and is very real and is a good subject to discuss about in a different post