Using Oz Scans

Guys,

Thanks for the encouragement last night. I sat on my hands today. I wanted to short BRCD but I didn't feel comfortable in the morning and I missed the downturn at ~13:40. I was tempted to short when the E-Mini broke the channel at 14:44. Glad that I didn't because the afternoon rally that peaked at 15:30 would have taken me out.

Overall, I found it a hard day to find good setups. I only look at NASDAQ. Better fishing tommorow.

Mike
 
INTU came up on the Usual Suspects scan.
Shame on me because I just jumped in at 40.70. It had been trending up nicely and I did not want wait for a pull back. I also wanted to get in before it tried to break the day high (40.89) and the high 2 days prior (41). It met quite a bit of resistance at 41. Volume increased. It shot up to 41.20 where it met more resistance and started pulling back. I bailed at 40.97. Good thing. It just wnt south from there.

I had an OK r/r ratio .10/.30. The problem was that I just wanted to catch a good run and did not make a smart entry. I should have jumped in on CKFR before it broke above 23.00. The wide spread scared me off. Interesting how it bottomed at ~22.50 which was intraday support on Thursday at ~14:00.

I just finished Tony's book The Stock Trader. Here are some of the things that I learned.

Tony is human like the rest of us. He feels the same pains from the market.

Almost every trade documented was made based on support and resistance.

Watching the indecies is important. New lows on an index can spell trouble.

When buying a breakout, try to wait for a pullback before entering.

Managing risk properly is the key to staying in the game.

You can never be too ready for when things go wrong. Having good contingency plans is a must.

Tony likes to sleep in on mornings that he is holding a position overnight.

Mike
 
On Friday, I was recording demo trading on a newer version of RealTick for my presentation at Day Traders USA on Saturday (can't trade on that version yet). I had a dentist appointment at 8:45, so I didn't take positions in my trading account. Regardless, I was testing the new Oz Scanner Market Minder (in alpha, and no you can't have it yet, sorry).

I took some paper trades (trading with our buddy FRED, he gives great fills) in the first 30 minutes of trading. The trades were:

CPWM long (new Kid) +0.37
SCIO short (new kid) +0.85 (short was based on 10-day 30 minute chart utilizing entry strategies from chapter 7)
ELBO long (New Kid) -0.17
BJ short (Knock Down) +0.40
TROW short (Sky Scraper) +0.35
HOTT short (Sky Scraper) +0.22

I played the screen capture at DTUSA and the response from attendees who use the scanners right now was very positive. I won't make any promises, but I'm entertaining the thought of producing a video with screen captures that will be similar to the book the Stock Trader. I'm checking into it with my publishers, and I hope to have good news in the near future.

Trade Smart!

Tony
 
I'm looking over charts of the NASDAQ 100. It looks like BBBY is touching major support at ~34 (Lower BB, 50MA and prior support). If I keep an eye on this puppy tommorow, how can I use this knowledge for a high r/r trade. If it bottoms and turns up at ~34, go long with a stop just under 34? If it penetrates below 34, go short with a stop just above? Comments welcome?

Mike
 
Tony,
The video is way over due...hope things go well and that its out soon.:) Also did you ever consider making a video of one of your seminars? For some of us, we just can't make it to all these far away places that you go to. I would be interested in both.:)
 
Bullfighter,
Retailers: MAY....WMT....and ...JCP are due to report earnings on Monday and before the Market opens on Tuesday for WMT....If their earnings are good, then I'd be looking for a pop on BBBY. You may want to watch all of these closely at the start of the week....I am looking to go long on one of these...most likely will try to jump on board on the lows around late to mid afternoon....will watch earnings reports on these closely and will be ready to bail if reports are bad...if not I'll hold til tuesday.

Then I would like to flip from retail to Tech...AMAT comes out with earnings Tuesday along with HPQ...CSC....and...NTAP and finally DELL is due out Thursday.

The setups for most of these are close to Bottom Fisher...they are not all perfect....check them out to see if you think that there is a good setup and risk reward ratio according to what Tony has taught us....Ideally I'll be looking for long plays off of a couple of these...will try to jump on a good pivot point and pull back.

Keep a close eye on the climate of the market and the trend my friend...we both know that the markets are real crazy....any bit of bad news could foil these plans real quick....make sure you set your stop according to the way Tony says in his book.:)
 
I, and most surely others, hope you go ahead with the video. If you do, PLEASE use a professional videomaker to shoot it. I have bought many and all are poorly made---few closeups to show what the subject is. Giving all five to local library.:D
 
Originally posted by jj_jere@hotmail
Has anyone tried to backtest any of the Oz Scans? If so what were the results?
Thanks JJ
More...

JJ,

I took a short off a New Kid on the Block scan on Friday. The scan is normally used for long positions. Now, how do you suggest I backtest for that?

I guess what I'm trying to say is that you guys who like to backtest are completely missing the point of the scanner. As Dave said in another post, all the scan does is basically alerting you to a stock. "Hey JJ, check out XYZ"

Now can you suggest a way for me to backtest the effectiveness my buddy chuck had in College while screaming, "Tony check out the chick in the VW Cabriolet!" Do you have a way to tell me for sure if I would have been successful dating her. Or if anyone else would have been successful dating her, or if anyone would have been successful dating any of the girls Chuck told us about.

As I suggested before, forget about backtesting and do some real-time testing, and see if these alerts find what you are looking for and if they improve your bottom line. THIS WILL BE THE ONLY TRUE TEST. Do it on paper first. And if profitable on paper than put some money behind it.

Everyone, this tool is not a black box. It is not for the lazy person, because it requires a lot of work intraday and analysis of your performance afterhours. Then, if it works great. Work on improving your bottom line even more by fine-tuning. If it doesn't, move on to something else.

In short, no backtesting! Real-time testing with YOUR OWN trading system is the ONLY way to go.

Trade Smart!
 
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