Yes, the Elliott Wave Principle is important, but it is not so often mentioned, apparently not everyone can understand it. I just want to say that this form of technical analysis works, but if you decide to take it seriously, you will need to get acquainted with this theory many a day. Difficulties in the Elliott wave theory is the identification of the waves. Usually, a corrective wave is difficult to determine. All feature is that each wave has a set of characteristics. And these characteristics depend on the market behavior. I read book Visual Guide to Elliott Wave Trading and it helped me a lot. And I advise you to do it.
Using Elliott wave analysis in a practical way
- Thread starter Zestilio
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Actually, as complicated as it sounds, it feels like Elliott Wave is simple in its core idea. If you are new to it all, then perhaps one should give it a red. I liked how all the patterns are explained by simple words. But I am still not convinced it still works and can be applied to current markets.
I do not understand why nobody talks about role of volume analysis in Elliot wave theory. Using volume surges (increases in volume) as a confirmation of the beginning or end of a way, not just confirms the theory but also may explain processes behind a wave.
As an example, a strong volume surge during the price decline mean the panic selling. Volume is 2-side transaction and for each transaction we have equal number of buyers and seller. We have price decline because we have bigger number of bearish traders who is willing to sell at lower price. When we have increase in volume it means that new bullish traders are coming to satisfy the needs of sellers. Huge volume surge means big wave of bullish traders (attracted by low price) came and started to buy from those who sell in panic. Here, if the Bulls are strong enough (increase in volume is big enough) we may have shift in supply/demand balance toward the Bulls and the confirmation of the end of a Bearish wave
I think the more practical way to approach EWT is to draw parallel channel lines on whatever instrument you are trading and work backwards...There are so many 5 wave moves within a particular trading channel that you don't have to obsess over the wave counts...
I'm no expert in elliot wave but if the goal of your trading plan is to stack all possible odds in your favor, it should be obvious on that diagram which wave(s) are easiest to time and have the most potential.
The problem, as with all technical studies, is that it will be very clear after the fact but making the judgement before hand will be a guessing game that you could get better at with practice but which will always be subject to the normal gyrations of the market
I heard that Paul Tudor Jones believed/believes in it and used/uses it. He's done VERY well. I saw a free documentary about him on YouTube that you might find interesting.
To be honest, I do not understand why so many people doubts to apply the EW theory. If Elliott himself could hold all these tests at that time, I think now it could help a lot of traders. Especially when we live in the modern world, having the vast quantity of resources on the Internet, great opportunities to test it, and a huge number of books devoted to this. This is just what Mr. Elliott didn't have in those days. So take advantage of this!
I found one significant problem while trying to using it. The most common Elliott Wave patterns were often significantly different in both shape and frequency than the previous conceptions of them. Some patterns that were previously believed to be reliable did not work often enough to be used with any degree of confidence.