Using Delta as a measure of Standard Deviation Levels......

M

md2324

Hi,
can someone please help me in finding a way to " know " roughly what Strike Prices via those strikes Delta , that tend to hover around the 3 and 4 Standard Deviation levels ?


I am studying the selling of Options on Commodities, and was wondering if their is a metric/greek I can use for the Options , to help me narrow down those Strikes that are within the 3 and 4 Standard Deviation level.

Is it as simple as looking at Strikes of whose Deltas are between .03 - .05 ?

Thank you so much
 
To what end?

Delta can be used as a rough-measure of touch and expiration probability. A 10-delta strike has roughly a 10% chance of expiring ITM, and a 20% chance of touching prior to expiration.
 
It would not be as simple as looking at Deltas between .03-.05 because those would not be within the 3rd and 4th SD of the current price. If we assume that a delta of .03 means you have a 3% chance of expiring ITM then that would put you between the 2nd and 3rd SD. You will need to look at strikes that have Deltas of .003 or less.

Your main problem with selling options at these levels is that although there usually is an ask, there probably wont be a bid so you will have to come down from the ask price possibly 50% or more in order to find a buyer. Your expected value may be negative at that point.
 
you could use implied vol to calculate std and then find a strike. But just using delta doesn't make sense since a 50 delta option with one week to expiry will have a lower std than a 50 delta option with 1 year to expiry
 
2rosy or anyone else,
can you please give an example as to the following.... ( Using
implied vol to calculate std and then finding a strike )
Thanks for the help
 
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