Using Bitcoin historical prices to try to asses the current price potential of BTC

[Mercor]

Yes you are correct
So far its been a market of pros and players and geeks
Once Grandpa starts to keep his bitcoin data in his top drawer and then the account "disappears" someone will need to bail that out or else it will be to risky for the general public

 

[ZBZB]

Yes you are correct
So far its been a market of pros and players and geeks
Once Grandpa starts to keep his bitcoin data in his top drawer and then the account "disappears" someone will need to bail that out or else it will be to risky for the general public

20% of bitcoin has been lost though some estimate it as a third.

 

[Daal]

Thats why its Black swan, If we could fathom the events it would not be
I think the weak link is with the coin owner
Maybe Robinhood gets hit, passwords get corrupted
If the public experiences theft it could quickly become a confidence issue

I feel the public is only accepting payment in bitcoin because it is rising
Once it starts dropping public demand will collapse.

If it drops by half the public will be hurt then the politicians will need to react...thats the end

Maybe a comet hits the earth and we all go extinct. here is a rule for your life, when dealing with exponential returns with limited risk, dont worry about small risks. If anything BTC is antifragile (Indeed, Taleb is long), the more uncertanty there is around its value, the more the chance it will go to some absurd price. Uncertainty affects both sides of the tail but the downside is limited by the zero bound

 

[Mercor]

Maybe a comet hits the earth and we all go extinct. here is a rule for your life, when dealing with exponential returns with limited risk, dont worry about small risks. If anything BTC is antifragile (Indeed, Taleb is long), the more uncertanty there is around its value, the more the chance it will go to some absurd price. Uncertainty affects both sides of the tail but the downside is limited by the zero bound

Yes. it is a great trading market.
This discussion is about whether Bitcoin can go mainstream. Maybe it will only succeed as a commercial product.
Will the public trust it?

 

[johnarb]

Yes. it is a great trading market.
This discussion is about whether Bitcoin can go mainstream. Maybe it will only succeed as a commercial product.
Will the public trust it?

You're not ready for bitcoin if you're waiting for others' validation. Bitcoin is open source and has been available to everyone in the world for 12 years.

Grandpa can use Paypal along with hundreds of millions of other Paypal customers to buy bitcoin and it won't get stolen (doesn't allow withdrawal) or the public can use Square. In fact, the demand has been great for Bitcoin on those 2 platforms. Google it if you don't believe me.

 

[rolando87]

My guess at where the top might be using the last 3 bubbles as a guide. I'm guessing between 50 and 100k is where we will hit before it implodes again

 

[tsznecki]

It has nothing to do with reality. Price is being heavily manipulated with fake tethers. Cash is being pulled from system rapidly. Institutions doing OTC.

interesting day to watch is January 15th. This is when BitFinex must submit documents to NY attorney general office.

my prediction - it will crush spectacularly this year.

Again with this garbage. Bitfinex has admitted it does not have Tether 1:1 backed. Bitfinex has also been sued by NY AG as you said. Yet, Tether growth is up not down and BTC is at 40K. You really have no clue what you are talking about.

 

[RedDuke]

Again with this garbage. Bitfinex has admitted it does not have Tether 1:1 backed. Bitfinex has also been sued by NY AG as you said. Yet, Tether growth is up not down and BTC is at 40K. You really have no clue what you are talking about.

you just confirmed my point. Tether is a fraud and yet BitFinex creates more and more of them, and they are used to manipulate Bitcoin price. Please elaborate where I am wrong.

 

[tsznecki]

you just confirmed my point. Tether is a fraud and yet BitFinex creates more and more of them, and they are used to manipulate Bitcoin price. Please elaborate where I am wrong.

2 points in my response to you:
1)You are asserting that Bitfinex uses Tether to prop up BTC price. Prove it then. Show us the wallet addresses showing movement of funds. Where is the empirical facts? You have none.

2)Assume your theory is right and price is being manipulated. Let's look at the real world impact. You have been claiming manipulation since BTC at 10K. BTC price is 4x higher and climbing now. The real world does not care about your garbage theory even if you are right.

In short, you are a gay bear. Post your position. Oh wait you don't have any shorts do you?