Use January 20th, 2006 as a signal day.

[shortlong]

Quote from studyandtrade:

IMHO Friday, January 20th '06 signaled the end of the 2002-2005 Bull market. If it also signaled the start of a new Bear market has yet to be seen, but several signs are pointing into that direction:
* the leaders don't lead anymore (GOOG, AAPL, YHOO, etc)
* every important stock index (DJI, COMP, QQQQ, SPX, OEX) shows a VERY bearish reversal pattern in the weekly charts --> an Evening Star c.q. Evening Doji Star
* bearish MACD & MACD-Histogram divergences in all of those indices
* volume characteristics during the days after January 20th, a death cat bounce, are defenitely bearish.

Splendid analysis studyandtrade! I don't trust this market anymore. Dow Jones looked strong over the last 3 days but trading volume declined. What also worries me is that the Nasdaq 100 is lagging! I took my money of the table Friday.

 

[drmarkan]

Quote from studyandtrade:

IMHO Friday, January 20th '06 signaled the end of the 2002-2005 Bull market. If it also signaled the start of a new Bear market has yet to be seen, but several signs are pointing into that direction:
* the leaders don't lead anymore (GOOG, AAPL, YHOO, etc)
* every important stock index (DJI, COMP, QQQQ, SPX, OEX) shows a VERY bearish reversal pattern in the weekly charts --> an Evening Star c.q. Evening Doji Star
* bearish MACD & MACD-Histogram divergences in all of those indices
* volume characteristics during the days after January 20th, a death cat bounce, are defenitely bearish.

S&P has it's strongest first quarter since 1999. Good analysis. Now making newer highs.

 

[drsteph]

Quote from independenceair:

Lots of topping signals but they can become overextended even more that they are now- the market is going nuts on the slightest positive news- low quality bond rally next ?
Something that could disguise the classic extreme top is the Iran and Nigeria oil concerns that are supressing any rallies- money seems to be going in but the reds are diluting them with plenty of Charasma
Just my opinion - plenty of topping signs but markets often stretch way beyond the rational crowd's way of seeing things

The Japanese thing where they closed the markets early wasn't too encouraging- but i'm sure they have all kinds of answers.

I think jobs numbers should help identify a potential top- they are usually quick to shed jobs and slow to hire, the fact that people are edgy about more rate hikes is good- its worse when speculators throw caution to the wind and they act as though nothing could stop the market- like the run up just prior to jan.20 th decline- extremely bullish overtones in certain news columns/headlines didn't make any sense.

Low quality bond rally with the 30 year up .40 in yield? I don't thinkso.

I am starting to think that the fed has done the unbelievable - reversed the deflationary trend for an inflationary one. I think it is about to get very interesting, as it sure has been interesting for the last month or so.