USD's next move, please vote

[Hansel H]

Quote from JSSPMK:

Another point worth mentioning - gold weekly basis IMO has topped.

That gold chart definitely looks toppy, especially with RSI contradicting the price moves. Silver's not so obvious but it's overdue for a serious correction and will follow gold down.

I voted for up but don't think US gov't wants it as high as .88 unless a lot of foreign investment money starts coming in seeking security, offsetting the trade disadvantage of a higher dollar.

USD up, Gold down near term. Just IMHO.

 

[JSSPMK]

EU agreed on a permanent debt crisis tool by 2013, but no agreement so far on current issues, by 2013 it may be too late for some PIIGBS. If no decision will be made by EOD, then I think Euro will continue falling. Sounds like a good plan for Germany. Strengthens the case for USD 88.

 

[JSSPMK]

Bump

 

[BwPirt]

I like the direction that the dollar is moving into. I hope it's more than just a "temporary" move.

 

[JSSPMK]

That's what I think is next.

"Permanent debt crisis tool" is due in 2013, that's 2+ years for PIIGBS to last afloat? I doubt traders will think that to be realistic.

 

[brokenmarkets]

if you need to ask you shouldn't be trading or in this market. i've lost the most money listening other people's 'opinions'
i'm shocked at experts giving totally wrong opinions.

Quote from JSSPMK:

I am not going to post any charts or quote any analyst's opinions. What is YOUR opinion on next move in USD?

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from brokenmarkets:

if you need to ask you shouldn't be trading or in this market. i've lost the most money listening other people's 'opinions'
i'm shocked at experts giving totally wrong opinions.

I didn't ask what should I do, it is was meant to be a dollar sentiment poll, like a survey

 

[gtor514]

Quote from JSSPMK:

I didn't ask what should I do, it is was meant to be a dollar sentiment poll, like a survey

Currencies are notably sentiment driven, so getting as many opinions can give an edge.

Any way, echoing the chart you posted earlier, I see pretty much the same thing. Its funny how the price action at the 200dma is almost identical to a year ago from today on the eurusd. The key here is the treasuries which will drive the usdx.

However, be careful the fed will have to make purchases to implement QE2 so the decline will not be so orderly.

 

[ammo]

the chart gtor514 posted is a hns pattern, i've noticed over the last year or more, that a lot of these patterns don't play out,in the eur usd or just the dollar, with the money supply being added to on the faith in credit of the government at work, the credit out on these that may or may not get paid back,the gdp %'s of total debt..and on and on....i don;t think the largest players can take long term stakes in them, thus the size builds will be smaller, causing them to peter out and not reach targets,futhermore,i'm not an economist but it would seem common sense that with all these currencies being diluted with monopoly money ,they would all go lower eventually..those two simple thoughts in mind, i wouldn't play the currencies longer term ..... below is an hns in the dollar,not as simple as the eur usd but an hns all the same,notice the lower volume for december

 

[JSSPMK]

Quote from ammo:

the chart gtor514 posted is a hns pattern, i've noticed over the last year or more, that a lot of these patterns don't play out,in the eur usd or just the dollar, with the money supply being added to on the faith in credit of the government at work, the credit out on these that may or may not get paid back,the gdp %'s of total debt..and on and on....i don;t think the largest players can take long term stakes in them, thus the size builds will be smaller, causing them to peter out and not reach targets,futhermore,i'm not an economist but it would seem common sense that with all these currencies being diluted with monopoly money ,they would all go lower eventually..those two simple thoughts in mind, i wouldn't play the currencies longer term ..... below is an hns in the dollar,not as simple as the eur usd but an hns all the same,notice the lower volume for december

Ammo, the way November bar engulfed October in USD is strong price action. You have pointed out a H&S on a daily time frame against that bullish move. Right now I see a bullish buy pattern on Daily. Daily's pattern matches Monthly bullishness. I think from what I have read Euro ought to be weaker right now because there is no solution for bailing out Spain, Portugal & possibly Italy prior to 2013.