USDJPY set up ideas and trades

TA is still a good guide nonetheless. My experience from using RSI is that it does work with the exception in a true breakout it becomes less useful. This is the rare event of a breakout in a currency I guess.

Back in March the RSI was >90 but it still kept going higher so that should have been a clue something was afoot.
 
expiated said:
I trade based on technicals, but the system I use was developed by relying on five principles, the first of which was to "test everything and hold fast only to that which proves to be valid and reliable."

This led me to reject the use of almost all common indicators, such as MACD, RSI, CCI, stochastic oscillators and the like; along with any approaches involving harmonic patterns, Elliot waves, pivot points, Fibonacci ratios and whatnot.

As it turned out, I found the absolute best "atmospheric barometer" for predicting the direction in which exchange rates might ultimately be headed was nothing more than simple moving averages, with a handful of key measures evidencing superior usefulness in this role, which I (and others) call "baselines."

However, to trade with the clarity and precision I desired required me to assign specific temporal values to each individual baseline. This enabled me to answer the questions: What moving average best conveys in which direction and by how much price moves every five minutes? Or every 30 minutes? Or every four hours? Etc.

So, in the same way a pilot is aware that a Boeing 747 will lift off the ground by angling upward at two to three degrees per second with a maximum angle of 10 to 15 degrees; I as a retail trader know the parameters dictating whether an asset is rising or falling from the perspective of a day, swing, or position trader.

This works, even if it seems like an asset keeps going higher and higher, and continues to work so long as up remains up and down remains down.
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Seems like for the currencies that I trade the 2-hour SMA works pretty well except for the Euro which gets congested quite often like it did last month.
 
nitrene said:
TA is still a good guide nonetheless. My experience from using RSI is that it does work with the exception in a true breakout it becomes less useful. This is the rare event of a breakout in a currency I guess.

Back in March the RSI was >90 but it still kept going higher so that should have been a clue something was afoot.
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I have deleted all indicators 2 decades ago.

I remembered in those weeks/months, I kept on thinking
shall I keep the indicators?
shall I delete it?
shall I keep the indicators?
shall I delete it?
shall I keep the indicators?
shall I delete it?
shall I keep the indicators?
shall I delete it?
shall I keep the indicators?
shall I delete it?
shall I keep the indicators?
shall I delete it?
....

Until one day, I decided decisively to delete all indicators from my charts.



anyway, you have to experiment with various indicators / no indicators / TA / PA
and see which best suits you.
 
nitrene said:
TA is still a good guide nonetheless. My experience from using RSI is that it does work with the exception in a true breakout it becomes less useful. This is the rare event of a breakout in a currency I guess.

Back in March the RSI was >90 but it still kept going higher so that should have been a clue something was afoot.
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OB/OS can continue indefinitely. Readings by themselves are of much use.
 
USDJPY
This pair has been on a bullish run for months and every time I have tried to sell it I always get stopped. Now I am only looking for short term 4 hour pull backs to continue the buys. Targeting the previous highs each set up.
This set up is a short term drop down in to a daily FVG looking for Price action during London open tomorrow.
Keep a close eye on market structure and remember key entry and price action will be needed.

What do you think of this pair at the moment? Let me know what you think of this set up.
USDJPY Bullish movement..png
 
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