USD - Up or Down?

Quote from izeickl:

God man, how many times do I have to tell you that I go both long and short and can still make profits? I just said I wasnt long USD, im not short USD either right at this moment in time. I dont just change my size according to some news event and go heavy/light either. It seems like your missing a few marbles mate, your so frenzied over people who buy USD (you completely ignore time frame and length held) and saying how they are going to lose the shirts on their back.

Why is it so impossible for you to see both long/short trades on the charts?

Why do you think that someone who bought USD would keep holding onto them no matter what and just take a bigger and bigger loss?

Why cant I buy USD for a couple of days when it gets stronger then sell USD when it gets weaker? (this is called TRADING)
More...

I been considering the charts, Iz, and, I now see what you are talking about. It is eerie. It looks like there IS a consolidation happening - this MAY indicate a USD reversal after all...

Well, like my friend, Captain "Chicken Heart" Stavros, says, he cannot put his finger on it as to why, but he is calling a bull run for the USD.

The fundamentals are certainly not there for one, but the technicals indeed may be pointing to one.

Well, my positions are laughable. I only have a $250 account so I trade in single units. I earn about .23 cents a week but I figure that, in time, my account will grow.

It sure beats workin at my old job at McDonalds.

The "Golden Arches"... bleh...

Regards,

Saham
 
After spending some time away and reconsidering recent price swing events, and after taking into consideration what a trading friend of mine indicated that "drawdowns" are happening more and more these days ( "the market seems to be changing" ); with professional traders seeing two seemingly opposite events happening with fundamentals and technicals converging yet indicating two different views...

I have come to a conclusion that may make the most sense.

Yes, I am new to all this ( 4 months ) but pick up things pretty fast.

Of all the rumors, fears and media blitz pounding us last week and this week maybe we all need to view this entire fx marketplace a little differently from here out.

How? By expanding OUR horizons.

As traders we may be too used to "normal" trading ranges being 30 pips. At least that is what I was told the normal daily fluctuation is when I got into this 4 months ago.

I recognized, though, that with an increase in volume ( above the 1.5 to 3 trillion per day ) that price swings are bound to increase in direct proportion.

Perhaps that is all that is happening here.

Could be the market itself is loosening up some, relaxing, so to speak. Getting more comfortable trading with wider boundaries.

In the end is it not our own mindsets that interpret what "normal" ranges indicate?

We may have to change our views.

What if 300 to 500 point upper and lower trading ranges are now the norm?

After all, is it not us traders who leverage ourselves too tightly who freak when the price goes beyond our own limitations and cannot withstand larger trading ranges so blame our losses on the market when its prices exceed our expectations of what WE think "normal" is?

Let's say the market HAS changed. Are there more participants? FX was bound to grow. One thing is undeniable: With an increase in daily trades and trading volume will naturally come excesses and expansion in trading ranges.

Therefore I suggest WE, as successful traders, adapt, and rewire our own systems to simply incorporate these new, larger trading ranges and compensate accordingly.

If we started seeing the normal daily or weekly swings as 300 instead of 30 and reduce our trade size accordingly to handle this new volatility, we'd have a greater profitability range as well.

Imagine a forex market where you could profit continuously not locked tightly into a 30 pip range, but by trading in a 300 point range, a 500 point range, 1000 points.

All we need to do to take advantage and win in this new environment is to not leverage ourselves quite so highly. For smaller accounts ( like mine ) just reduce the size of your trade. Instead of trading 100,000 or 300,000 unit bangers, reduce your trade in half. By doing so you automatically increase your tolerance level as well.

Who is to say that just because the market goes up or down 1000 points that that is not simply the normal range these days?

If it is, it would indicate that the USD is simply trading within its own new range while not necessarily signaling a full reversal of trend.

This may be why we are seeing too different signals at the same time, fundamentals versus techinicals.

Anyway, just a thought.

Good trade,

Sam
 
for example ... in the month of FEB

the USD / EUR has had plenty of moves of at least 100 pips

( these are approx moves from the cash chart )

up 200 , down 100 , up 130 , down 120 , up 200

down 160 , up 190 , down 100 , up 140 , down 140

up 240 , down 170 , up 215 , down 270 , up 100

down 300 , up 260 , down 340 , up 140

so perhaps if one has the skill or luck to buy near the
bottom or sell near the top of a big move , one can hold on
long enough to capture part of the next big move

:cool:
 
Quote from SethArb:

for example ... in the month of FEB

the USD / EUR has had plenty of moves of at least 100 pips

( these are approx moves from the cash chart )

up 200 , down 100 , up 130 , down 120 , up 200

down 160 , up 190 , down 100 , up 140 , down 140

up 240 , down 170 , up 215 , down 270 , up 100

down 300 , up 260 , down 340 , up 140

so perhaps if one has the skill or luck to buy near the
bottom or sell near the top of a big move , one can hold on
long enough to capture part of the next big move

:cool:
More...

BRILLIANT!

Hey, I know... couldn't we just make trades based on the prices in your example here?? Kind of like old-new, old-new. old-new type thingy.

We're only trading 1 unit per trade anyway so "we can afford to have patience!"

:D

sam
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top