USD - Up or Down?
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I have never said that everyone should buy USD as you will make money without fail, what I HAVE said is that there ARE places where buying USD will make you profits even if over the longer term it is getting weaker. Time frame is what matters. If you are so certain that Eur is heading up I hope you have taken out a huge position and holding for a long time, else be quiet.
I do think it is a wonderful feat making 100 flawless trades a day. I have heard of profitable traders, what Ive never heard of is traders who never lose and they have just been trading with real money for 4 or so weeks. The best traders on this board who have been going for years will still make losing trades. This is what makes you different.
Yes some trades I still lose, I would not try to impress people who know better by saying I have a 100% win rate.
I am not currently long USD as after making a profit I close the trades and re-evaluate the situation. You make it sound like anyone who buys USD is holding onto them for the next 2 years in the sorry hope that this is a USD bottom. My most common time frame is hourly/4hrs....within this time frame there are many places buying USD makes profit, you take the profits, then you look to the next trade which might be selling USD. Buying, selling, taking profits, cutting losses...the concept isnt hard.
I do think it is a wonderful feat making 100 flawless trades a day. I have heard of profitable traders, what Ive never heard of is traders who never lose and they have just been trading with real money for 4 or so weeks. The best traders on this board who have been going for years will still make losing trades. This is what makes you different.
Yes some trades I still lose, I would not try to impress people who know better by saying I have a 100% win rate.
I am not currently long USD as after making a profit I close the trades and re-evaluate the situation. You make it sound like anyone who buys USD is holding onto them for the next 2 years in the sorry hope that this is a USD bottom. My most common time frame is hourly/4hrs....within this time frame there are many places buying USD makes profit, you take the profits, then you look to the next trade which might be selling USD. Buying, selling, taking profits, cutting losses...the concept isnt hard.
Quote from izeickl:
Lets condense things.
Firstly no need to be an arrogant prick about spelling.
you take all the fun out of trading!
You say all my words are "full blown presumption", so are yours. Unless your so arrogant you really do think you have some view of what will happen years down the line.
A few years down the line? Nah, that is what the future loser USD longs are saying, not me. Actually they are saying that the USD has hit a reversal that is permanent and the EUR trend is OVER. Indicating that the EUR is now in a freefall, instead of the USD being in one as it has been for two years and counting.
That is why I posted this post. Anyway, it is not to debate with you, Iz. Not my intention.
I said that the EU doesnt care about the USD yes. It doesnt care about keeping the USD weak to help America, it does care about keeping it stronger to help the EU, perhaps you couldnt grasp that.
Now, are you talking short term or long term here?
Im not SO SURE that the ECB will be intervening at any specific level,
I'm glad that has been clarified.
obviously words are better as it costs them nothing,
That is why they have forums for doles like you to dish out your free trading advice to go long on the USD.
dont say it will never happen though, just look how much Japan has spent.
Right, and just because a single rogue central bank practises intervention (that doesn't work) while all other CBs do NOT, then THAT means we should look out for it happening. Nice. Nice advice, Iz. I can hardly wait to follow your next trading directive. Better yet, maybe I and the other traders here should just turn our trading accounts over to you. I have no doubt you will earn us all a very good living.
"You should not trade on "buts!"
Rule Arrogant Bastard number 25626....USD could get stronger BUT its unlikely...better not trade at all then.
Now you are making sense. "USD could get stronger BUT its unlikely." Glad you are seeing the light of day and hopefully you will not lose your arse by making big trades long USD "now that the trend has permanently reversed"
I hope that all who read this do not make the mistake of biting into the groundless structure of the current pro-USD market sentiment. My concern is that my fellow traders lose less not more.
"If it weakens again, you can always sell... at a huge loss... because you bit into this rumor in the first place that the USD's trend has now permanently reversed and it is definitely going up from here."
You say you go both long/short, and you also seem to have found the holy grail of 100 winning trades a day!(I bow down to your trading greatness), so are you the ONLY one who can buy USD and make a profit? I never said anywhere anything about a permanent reverseal either, but if USD strengthens by several hundreds of pips, damn right i want to buy USD to make a profit on part of the move.
I found no holy grail, dude. I word my arse off, trading at times up to 3 days straight to keep from being vaporized in the market. Up to now I come out with profit after opening each trade. I have not had a losing (overall) trade. Even though I have had to break even at times.
Losing is a drag. I should know, I probably lost more than anyone on demo accounts. I have a graveyard full of blown demo accounts.
If you think this is such a great feat then you never heard of other traders who profit? Are you saying there are no traders who make a living at trading? Because it sure seems like you are saying this.
What makes me so different according to you?
"who bought USD and made a profit?
That is a good question. I cannot think of anyone in the last two years and counting."
So you DONT go long/short then?
Yes I do go long and short. However, I may trade a little differently than others. What I would like to nix for all our sakes is the structural sentiment that is very dangerous in the currency market climate... the one that goes: "The USD hit the bottom and is now on the reversal - buy USD now because in a year from now you will be richer than Warren Buffett!"
And if I am wrong then I would like someone who is smarter than me and who has more sense to post on this string, so that I could try to avoid future losses as well.
I am trying to indicate that MY signals have not changed regarding USD. I posted a post here. So what! Why do you have to harangue me? You want to buy USD - have a party, son! Go for it - I could use more profits - I will put them to good use.
Or you do, but you havent bought USD for over two years now obviously as you always make a profit and never lose.
The thing I have not done is bite into this currency "USD is going up! The EUR trend is over! EUR is in a freefall now!" sentiment. I put this thread up so others can post their conclusions if they feel like. It is not to dis me.
Oh and for the record, Ive bought USD and made lots of profit, the trick is, to sell when it gets weaker, buy when it gets stronger.....
I am glad you made "profit." However, any hyena can make profit. That is only half the equation. Losing is what I address in ths string. Profits have a funny way of dissappearing when a trader loses.
Let me ask you, Iz... do you still lose when you trade? Will you lose with your long USD trades? How much to you anticipate will be your future losses on your USD long trades? Do you ever consider that the depth of your losses on your USD longs will be much greater than you anticipate?
Since you promote buying the USD as a sure shot thing, why don't you simply empty your trading account into a single humongous USD long position, shorting the EUR, then close your monitor and check back in two months to six months?
I mean, why not do it? It would be the best trade of the century! (according to you.)
In the meanwhile, perhaps should spend your off time checkin out the newest Lear jets and Ferrari models.
You'll need to do something with all your future USD long winnings... before "the USD weakens again."
I see in another post you have written
"I close between 50 and over 100 trades a day easy. I been live about 4 weeks now."
Truly you are great, your first ever 2100 trades all flawless.
I think you took that out of context. I am sure I could pull numerous statements you made to distort what you are saying, as well - I don't have the time. In fact, this is my last reply to you, Iz.
Good luck.
Take care,
Sam
Quote from SethArb:
nobody in the world has ever made claims like you
not even mr market
Seth, that is simply not true. Most traders who are successful MUST win more than they lose or break even, else they would not be successful, right?
I guess you are saying that my "claim" to success is not warranted and that all traders on this forum are certified losers.
Fine. Call me a liar.
Whatever.
I give up.
You guys ... good luck with your trading.
Later...
Sam
I say prolonged trading range between 1.20 and 1.30 until june where we possibly get interest rate cut in US. I do not see either 1.20 or 1.30 breaking any time soon. Best thing to do is to sell volatility at this point. or buy directional options at the extremes.
If greenspan has a heart attack, I say dollar loses 400 points and grinds a bit lower until it starts recovering.
Iz... they caught Bin Laden!
This should make your USD longs go up for sure! (psss: buy heavy)
http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Co...701&call_pageid=968256289824&col=968705899037
lmao,
Sam
God man, how many times do I have to tell you that I go both long and short and can still make profits? I just said I wasnt long USD, im not short USD either right at this moment in time. I dont just change my size according to some news event and go heavy/light either. It seems like your missing a few marbles mate, your so frenzied over people who buy USD (you completely ignore time frame and length held) and saying how they are going to lose the shirts on their back.
Why is it so impossible for you to see both long/short trades on the charts?
Why do you think that someone who bought USD would keep holding onto them no matter what and just take a bigger and bigger loss?
Why cant I buy USD for a couple of days when it gets stronger then sell USD when it gets weaker? (this is called TRADING)
Why is it so impossible for you to see both long/short trades on the charts?
Why do you think that someone who bought USD would keep holding onto them no matter what and just take a bigger and bigger loss?
Why cant I buy USD for a couple of days when it gets stronger then sell USD when it gets weaker? (this is called TRADING)